S&P
Mid-day Update… Downright slumber.
Lower lows still not trending down.
When this morning’s bias environment began lapsing, its relatively narrow 2892.00-2897.00 range broke lower. Sharply. Suddenly and steeply, but not substantially. Just 2-3 minutes of plunging to 2885.25 ended it. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest.
Recovering up to 2892.00 through the noon hour has resolved down, too. Just not substantially, only attacking the low to within 5 ticks, leaving its oversold RSIs outstanding.
Ratcheting lower and lower could be considered trending, if not contained within a prior window. Like this moring’s drop, which has only retraced to yesterday’s last 60-90 minute low. Not quickly rejecting its retest could replace 2902.00‘s attraction above with a collapse below. Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment rallying above 2892.00 would be credible for extending back to and through session highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 12, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is unusually sparse. The pre-open report is neither high-profile nor influential to price action, unlike the only post-open report. But no afternoon reports or speakers are scheduled that would help to keep alive volatility into the weekend.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.00 | 2895.75 |
| …would target | 2898.25 | 2902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2882.00 | 2886.00 |
| …would target | 2877.00 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Resting on its laurels.
Obligatory resistance is being attacked slowly.
There’s a fine line between strong-handed patience, and ineffectual optimism. The difference becomes clearer as pessimists reveal themselves.
This morning’s pessimists are preventing the overnight retests of 2900.00 from probing higher. Not even to 2902.00. But their reactions down are unable to gain traction.
Sellers did prevent triggering the 2895.00 bias-up signal. But its inverse didn’t trigger no-bias. Instead, still testing the bias-up signal at 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. Neither the bias-up target above, nor an offsetting test of the bias-down signal below are required.
Trying to trend higher or lower is still possible, but not to satisfy an objective. Meanwhile, the first hours five 15-minute checkpoints all overlapped the same relevant 2895.00 level, forming a “Dry Cleaners morning” setup. It doesn’t prevent trending either, but makes trending attempts difficult and likely to return to 2895.00.
Testing 2902.00 is still likely for its proximity, and for sellers not using the first hour to reverse from its obligatory resistance. Testing 2902.00 is still vulnerable to violent rejection, for the unstable base that is forming in the interim.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Got there.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up 4-5 points Wednesday to 2787.75 didn’t ensure trending up. Or snapping back down. Gapping up did foreshadow a bullish resolution to ranging choppily sideways until the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. The resolution wasn’t immediate, and it was as choppy as the earlier range. But the day’s second stage did eventually break higher touched the 2894.25 61.8% retracement of the gap back up to Monday’s close. A 5-point reaction down spiked back up at the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Like yesterday’s second stage, choppiness has persisted, and it has resolved up. Wednesday’s last-minute spike up had continued firming through the Globex open, extending to touch 2900.00. That was a retest of Monday night’s high, where price had reacted down 7 points. Last night’s reaction down was 8 points, which has already extended lower after bouncing into Europe’s opens. But at 2890.00, another bounce began, its recovery now touching the earlier 2900.00 high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: There’s no “unfinished business” above, as 2902.00 is only likely to be touched. If anything was required, it was to reward Tuesday’s buyers for absorbing Tuesay’s late weak-handed pre-open drop to 2880.00 with a return to the drop’s origin. That was 2900.00, and that was tested overnight, twice. Its intraday test would be more satisfying, as would a test of 2902.00 or higher, which now seems like only a formality. If/Whenever 2902.00 is tested, the pattern remains vulnerable to reversing down intraday — suddenly, steeply, and substantially. Avoiding a reversal down or limiting its depth and duration could next target 2928.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2897.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2895.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2904.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2902.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2911.00.