S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2890.75 | 2895.00 |
| …would target | 2897.75 | 2902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2881.75 | 2886.00 |
| …would target | 2876.25 | 2880.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday gapped up 4-5 points back to Tuesday’s 2787.50 open. Its natural resistance became more of an attraction, and price fluctuated choppily around it through the open, through the morning, and through the noon hour. Not at all surprising, if not also expected, due to anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
The impact of that anxiousness suggested FOMC Minutes were being widely watched. It also suggested that releasing the Minutes would be the catalyst to launch trending, or at least to widen the range. Its last two releases had done the same. But in a classic “watched pot never boils” scenario, price action was relatively subdued, and the window’s 2886.00-2891.50 support-resistance held.
Until the window lapsed. Trending up into the final hour touched 2894.25 — retracing 61.8% of Tuesday’s opening gap back up to Monday’s close. Its resistance reacted down 5 points before the close, which was all retraced by the last minute’s spike up.
With no “unfinished business” above requiring a test, no matter how likely otherwise, no hold-long was contemplated. But Monday night’s 2899.00 prior high’s retest remains likely, likely to include 2902.00 with room up to 2911.00, while still being vulnerable to reversing down aggressively intraday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Triggering its inverted Head & Shoulders pattern Monday by closing above 1.1320 had failed to confirm by only holding a test Tuesday of 1.1345 resistance. Not extending higher immediately was vulnerable to reacting down, which Wednesday did in the wake of ECB events. The low under 1.1295 intersected with the pattern’s uptrending support, reacting back up to touch 1.1345, keeping very much alive the inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Wednesday morning retested Tuesday’s highs, which had formed while fluctuating narrowly around Monday’s highs. Fresh recovery highs were probed into the close. Almost any higher close and/or early strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher into and out of the weekend. Delaying higher highs would remain vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up to Monday’s highs was ultimately retraced to test negative territory. All of which was recovered early Wednesday but not extended before or after the close. A valid recovery would make itself obvious without delay Thursday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday probed Tuesday’s retest of 148-02 resistance by testing the 148-16 buy signal. Uptrending pivotal support is intersecting with resistance on Thursday and Friday, so any early strength would be credible for extending higher at a steep slope. Pullbacks still have room down to 147-24.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Wednesday probed Tuesday’s highs, but still only attacked Tuesday’s pre-open highs that had stopped 25-cents short of fulfilling the long-standing 65.00 target.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Another shallow dip above 2.65-2.67 was recovered and 2.71 was only pierced Wednesday, greeting Thursday’s EIA report not from a position of weakness, but also not quite from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Minutes until the Minutes.
Sloppy, choppy ranging about to abandon its inhibitions.
The open’s bouncing around persisted through the morning, and now also through the noon hour. The morning’s noN-bias is followed by this afternoon’s no-bias signal. The market continues to be inhibited by anxiousness ahead of FOMC Minutes due at 2:00 ET. By the same token, the market continues to be vulnerable to volatility triggered by the Minutes.
We know the catalyst is being greeted prior to probing fresh highs up to 2902.00 or higher. And also that reacting to the news beyond this afternoon’s 2886.00-2891.50 bias signals would be no-bias trending that requires retracement. So, an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up — especially if it touches 2902.00 — might be unable to withstand the attraction back down, which could become exacerbated into reversing the trend down.
Similarly, a knee-jerk reaction down — especially if it visits 2981.00 — could reverse up sharply.
Exiting the bias environment beyond either of its 2881.00 or 2897.25 bias targets would invalidate the required retracement. Regardless, volatility is about to come alive, with more predictability than this morning’s sloppy and choppy.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Both of Thursday’s pre-open reports are high-profile, but only one is reliably influential to price action anymore. That could set the tone for reacting to the two post-open Fed speakers, or a pre-open report’s reaction could be inhibited until the two post-open Fed speakers’ remarks are disseminated.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
*Richard Clarida Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:35 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:40 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET