S&P
Post-open Review… Back to the highs.
Target met, not renewed, but that didn’t matter.
Recovering the 2866.00 area through the open at 9:45 — or not — would have offered 
early assurance of also triggering the 2863.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. It was still being tested, so the early indication was moot.
But just testing and not rejecting it kept alive potential that its recovery was only being delayed by anxiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks. Which it was. The knee-jerk reaction to his remarks spiked up to test the 2868.50 bias-up target.
Its reaction down to 2865.00 easily triggered bias-up, but didn’t recover above 2868.50 in time to renew the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, and now another surge is attacking Tuesday’s 2874.00 high. RSIs are simultaneously overbought.
The usual bullish behavior of a bias-up target already met at 10:15 is to hover there, or back-and-fill through the balance of the bias environment. Probing higher can be premature, but the next significant higher objective would essentially be 2883.00. Regardless, I wouldn’t fade strength without some sort of distributive pattern forming first.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Since sellers weren’t retaking control at Thursday’s open, the first hour surged by default. The 11-point move covered a pre-open test of the 2858.50 bias-down signal and a test of the 2868.50 bias-up signal to its 2869.50 room for noise. But its excessive optimism couldn’t defend against a collapse back down to fresh lows testing 2855.00 by noon. The balance of the session ranged choppily back up to 2862.00. No unfinished business above was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s 2862.00 upper-end was probed slightly by midnight. Fluctuating narrowly around it into and out of Europe’s opens has resolved up. Now fresh overnight highs are testing 2865.50, a 61.8% extension from Thursday afternoon’s range, and at least a 61.8% retracement back to yesterday’s high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts yesterday, so trending beyond yesterday’s range this morning requires gapping. That’s was a much longer way for buyers as of the close, but now they’ve essentially recovered relevant levels around 2866.00. Meanwhile, that’s also resistance. Recovering it through the open would at least help to trigger bias-up and then to test yesterday’s highs. The knee-jerk reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s 10:00 remarks may inhibit opening action. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal is likelier to persist through the noon hour, which could leverage a morning bounce into a strong afternoon rally. All based on recovering relevant levels around 2866.00 through the open. Holding its test, or already dipping into the open would be vulnerable to the exact opposite, trending down into the weekend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2866.50 would be likely to trigger the 2863.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2862.50 | 2863.00 |
| …would target | 2868.00 | 2868.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2853.75 | 2854.25 |
| …would target | 2848.00 | 2848.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sellers needed to control Thursday’s open if they were going to control the morning. They tried — dipping to the morning’s 2858.50 bias-down signal before the open — but that was rejected by the first hour’s surge to test the 2868.50 bias-up signal to its 2869.50 room for noise.
The next hour collapsed to fresh lows testing 2855.00. Was it an anomaly, or a detour, or refueling for the rally? It’s difficult applying any of those labels, when the entire session only ranged choppily at the lows.
A third consecutive session has left no unfinished business above. Thursday even tested and held what was unofficially in-play, an offsetting test of the morning’s bias-up signal. So, once again, trending up Friday morning beyond Thursday’s range would all but require gapping up. A lot. Meanwhile, avoiding a bounce of any sort Friday should begin by trending down into and/or out of the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” that briefly probed above the rally’s 1.1625 target was reversed into Thursday afternoon down to 1.1550. Its likely minimum objective is to fill the gap outstanding from the 3-week old open under all prior lows at 1.1475, and potentially correct into the consolidation of the lows down to 1.1405.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reversing down from Wednesday’s opening gap up to 1207.50 resistance retested the 1195.00 buy signal and extended lower, attacking 1191.50 whose break would target 1172.50 and possibly also an intraday retest of the 1167.00 overnight low.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having failed to close above Wednesday’s test of 14.80, overnight weakness greeted Thursday’s open at or under the 14.63 sell signal and extended to within a nickel of filling the week-old gap back down to 14.45. Filling it may not hold initially, but it would be optimal before launching a recovery.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only momentarily piercing the 145-23 high of Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” overnight did not qualify as breaking through it, nor did Thursday morning’s brief piercing of it. But neither suggested that Wednesday’s fresh highs were being rejected, which can be bullish when confronted with ineffectual optimism.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s rally to 68.00 was probed only briefly overnight, stopping short of its next higher objective at 68.32. Thursday’s open was back within Wednesday’s range, as was the entire session.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength, but its knee-jerk reaction down was very shallow and very brief, and recovered into positive territory to attack prior highs up to 2.98. Closing any higher Friday would be entirely credible — if not also the minimum requirement — to extend the rally instead of pulling back to 2.85.