S&P
Mid-day Update… Hunkering down.
Still absorbing the opening rally’s failure.
Although this morning’s 2858.50 bias-down signal was last touched 3 minutes prior to the open, an offsetting test of its 2868.50 bias-up signal did develop.
Its room for noise up to 2869.50 was pierced by 1 tick as the rally peaked. Its reaction down had collapsed to 2855.00 as the bias window began lapsing at 11:30. The catalyst was apparently more China currency intervention.
Again, there’s no unfinished business above. Resistance that neutralizes buying pressure is being tested and held. And responsive.
None of which has resumed the reversal down. Not, yet. But this afternoon’s 2863.00 bias-up signal wasn’t even attacked. Another corrective bounce to 2866.00 could develop if the decline isn’t trying to resume when the afternoon bias window begins lapsing at 2:30.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open econ report is unique for this week, being high-profile while also being reliable for influencing price action. The Fed Chair’s post-open speech is already widely anticipated one week earlier, and watching it may be influential as well.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2862.50 | 2863.00 |
| …would target | 2867.75 | 2868.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2851.75 | 2852.50 |
| …would target | 2845.50 | 2846.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bouncing, in lieu of selling.
No new sellers.
[CORRECTION: First Trade’s post referenced Wednesday afternoon’s bias parameters and not this mornings. The bias parameter post is always the legitimate source.]
Not extending down out of the open would make a morning decline unlikely. 
And a pre-open dip had bottomed at this morning’s 2858.50 bias-down signal. Which wasn’t touched post-open, so only triggering no-bias doesn’t officially put into play an offsetting test of its 2868.50 bias-up signal.
But 2858.50 was touched within 3 minutes of the open. Which is close enough to plan for the market behaving as if the intraday crowd participated in the failed effort to break under it — at least, until disproved. In fact, 2868.50 is being tested now, including its room for noise up to 2869.50.
It’s too late to exceed 2868.50 through 10:30, which would have invalidated the no-bias signal. So, this test of 2868.50 should define the window’s upper-end. Probing above it anyway would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Flat-to-lower-to flat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Closing flat with its 2863.50 open Tuesday had reflected indecision and distribution, enabling the afternoon’s decline to extend down sharply overnight to attack 2846.00. Recovering to greet Wednesday’s open at 2859.50 and extend through the morning to 2868.00 fulfilled the expected corrective bounce of the drop from Tuesday’s high. Dipping to 2860.50 through the 2:30 bias window exit produced a shallower bounce, which was retraced entirely into the close. The cash session close was within 3 ticks of 2863.50, still reflecting distribution.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower-to flat. The Globex open quickly firmed to probe 3 ticks above Tuesday’s 2863.50 cash session close. A reaction to China’s overnight intervention triggered a dip to 2857.50 by midnight. All of which has been retraced to retest Tuesday’s 2863.50 cash session close.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Leaving no “unfinished business” above Tuesday had also enabled the steeper, deeper overnight dip. Wednesday also leaves no unfinished business. But Tuesday’s drop was already underway organically, before that sponsorship was crowded out by the weak-handed knee-jerk reaction to a synthetic catalyst. That leg didn’t require a complete retracement to the headline’s origin, but it’s been done anyway. Can another downleg be credible before more fully rewarding Tuesday night’s buyers with fresh highs above 2874.00? Probably not if Thursday’s open doesn’t quickly start producing that downleg (I describe three setups in the Market Tour). But not gapping up to and/or through Wednesday’s 2868.25 high would not require a rally to target any particular higher objective.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2867.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2869.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2863.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2860.25 bias-down signal.