S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 21, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ calendar could hardly be any slower, except for a weekend. Central Bankers from around the world, and at the Fed, are packing and boarding flights for Jackson Hole.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2858.00 | 2859.00 |
| …would target | 2865.25 | 2866.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2852.25 | 2853.25 |
| …would target | 2846.25 | 2847.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Traction. Action?
Gap holds up, buyers hold out.
Multiple factors in place at Friday’s close had already suggested probing higher this morning. The bullish WedEX and the rally’s trending traction, most prominently. Last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” has been added to the list. And post-open behaviors suggested that sellers are weak-handed.
But despite the 2854.50 bias-up signal holding several tests as support, it did not trigger. More so, still being overlapped at 10:15 AND 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. The bias-up target isn’t in-play, but neither is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.
While noN-bias often behaves like no-bias, simply hovering at the bias signal, earlier price action suggests sponsorship won’t be comfortable in a narrow range. Either fresh post-open lows or post-open highs is likely this morning.
The lower-end of the range is being tested now, but almost any strength on volume would be credible for probing fresh highs.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Weekend Wrally.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Overnight ranging up to 2849.00 and down to 2835.00 greeted Friday’s open toward the range’s lower-end. The open’s range was much narrower than overnight, but also noncommittal in either direction. But touching 2835.00 again finally started a rally that would extend into noon up to 2848.00. Reacting down 7 points to 2841.00 through the noon hour was reversed up by the bullish WedEX influence up to 2857.00. The prior week’s “higher prior lows” at 2854.00-2855.00 held as resistance through the close. But the rally still gained traction for its efforts by the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry both exceeding their prior timing window highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s support has persisted overnight. Its last reaction down had tested 2850.50, and firming from there extended at Sunday night’s open to 2855.00. Its reaction down tested 2850.50 before midnight, as did another, shallower bounce’s reaction down after midnight. A break lower seemed imminent, but it was circumvented by Chinese government intervention. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens probed Friday’s high by 3 points up to 2860.00. Now its reaction down is testing Friday’s high as support down to 2856.00.
If, then…
Trend extremes aren’t associated with expirations. So, an unlikely collapse today would likely be brief and recover entirely. Anyway, the first likelihood is to probe higher highs this morning since Friday’s rally gained traction. Even despite NDX underperforming S&Ps, and more so the Dow for a second consecutive session Friday, the market certainly seems like it wants to trend higher, at least in the near-term. There’s also follow-through from the bullish WedEX. And having peaked Friday upon testing “higher prior lows” from the prior week’s 2854.00-2863.00 consolidation, extending higher out of the weekend is likely to gap up to and/or trend through its upper-end. The overnight high has retraced that range already to 61.8%, so any higher would all but confirm the 2854.00-2863.00 consolidation’s complete recovery underway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2852.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2854.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2857.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2853.50 | 2854.50 |
| …would target | 2860.75 | 2861.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2846.50 | 2847.50 |
| …would target | 2840.00 | 2841.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.