S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another overnight run.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2857.00 was overlapping Friday’s high, and it was under the 2860.00 overnight high. Restrained optimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but didn’t prevent a dip that filled the gap back to Friday’s 2851.75 close. Price never turned negative, and rallying into the noon hour’s entry attacked the open’s 2858.50 high. Ranging flat-to-higher finally probed the overnight high to attack 2861.00 before a Trump headline triggered a dip back to 2857.00. Hold-long was disqualified because the potential reward for gapping up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late reaction down extended through the Globex open, ultimately touching 2854.00 at its low. Monday’s 2858.25 close was recovered by midnight. Europe’s opens not falling apart encouraged firming just a little to 2860.00, and not falling apart from there resolved up to attack 2865.00. Complexity has developed above yesterday’s highs, creating a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires an eventual intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This morning’s open is indicated to be the open that yesterday could have been. Friday’s rally had peaked upon testing the prior week’s “higher prior lows” at 2854.00-2855.00. Extending higher without delay probably would have gapped up above that structure’s 2863.00 upper-end. It wasn’t the only path higher, but none of the others were taken yesterday, either — instead, the overnight and intraday highs held the structure’s 61.8% internal retracement. But now this morning’s open is currently probing 2863.00, with the added assistance of having fulfilled its overnight pullback limit at 2854.00. Meanwhile, “unfinished business” left outstanding at 2866.25 during that structure’s forming had assured us last week’s interim dip to 2803.00 was only temporary. Its test is likely today, with the next higher objectives being 2873.00 and potentially 2883.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2863.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2861.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2860.50 | 2861.50 |
| …would target | 2865.25 | 2866.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2853.00 | 2854.00 |
| …would target | 2847.75 | 2848.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s gap up created room to expend selling pressure without it reversing the trend down. Which the morning exploited, trending down in a series of lower lows and lower highs, while remaining in positive territory throughout. Entering the noon hour back at post-open highs fulfilled the bullish WedEX influence, and the traction Friday’s rally had gained.
Upside momentum remained intact, but obligatory resistance at the 2860.00 overnight high was influential, too. It was attacked, touched and pierced by narrow, flat-to-higher ranging that finally probed higher during the last half-hour.
Finally probing higher so late had already disqualified a hold-long. The likely gap up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first. I had just announced that in the chaRTroom when Trump comments triggered a shallow spike back into the range down to 2858.00.
The very late dip down had no effect on the less late probe up. Regardless, Friday’s high maintained its recovery upon coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. A dip to 2854.00 remains possible, and should hold if the rally intends to extend Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s close (well) above the 1.1385 buy signal had initially gapped down a little at Monday’s open. But post-open action trended up relentlessly to confirm, targeting 1.1540-1.1545.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gap;ping up Monday to 1195.00 eventually probed higher intraday, but only briefly as the afternoon dipped back down to 1195.00. The gap back down to Friday’s 1184.00 close — if not also 1172.50 — are still likelier to be tested before a recovery can be credible.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight persisted through Monday, still being likely to test 14.45 below before a recovery can be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday extended to Wednesday and Friday’s 145-00 high extended to fresh highs intraday. May’s pivotal high to July’s actual high is now essentially tested, so the pattern is vulnerable to extending higher to probe 147-00.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct, which trades at a 55-60 cent discount to Sep]… Flat-to-higher ranging Monday continued Friday’s fluctuation around the pattern’s 65.50 buy signal. Triggering it through the close would target 68.25-69.25.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday helped to confirm that Friday’s gap up into the rally’s target area was only noise. But the gap down didn’t extend, leaving outstanding the room below at 2.85.
Mid-day Update… Restrained optimism becoming straining.
Sellers were absorbed, but buyers slow to be rewarded.
Sellers gained no traction for this morning’s efforts. Early strength to 2858.50 had stopped short of the 2860.00 overnight high. 
Its reaction bottomed upon filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2851.75 cash session close.
Positive territory contained the post-open downtrending. That’s the least qualification for the bullish WedEX, but the influence went further to attack or retest the open’s highs as the bias environment finished lapsing at noon.
Now WedEX has lapsed, so extending higher is the product of other influence. The obvious separate influence is the bias parameters, but this afternoon’s 2859.00 bias-up signal just avoided triggering.
Actually, 2859.00 is being pierced. Probing above it would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced before another upleg is credible. Slow-playing a break higher, or correcting it, would leave the final hour vulnerable to resuming the rally. There probably won’t be a sell signal nearer than 2855.00.