S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s stock market volatility and even Crude Oil volatility was ignored as Friday’s bounce simply maintained 1.1235 resistance. Its break should have little difficulty exceeding 1.1250 if the bottoming is valid.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and probing Friday’s high Sunday night up to 1287.50 struggled to maintain and ultimately reversed back into negative territory at 1278.00, but still recovered into positive territory above 1281.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely blipping-up Sunday night to 15.00 reacted down into negative territory at 14.77, but recovered the 14.82 buy signal. Any recovery at all is problematic with a fresh low close outstanding under 14.55.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Stock market collapse triggered a flight-to-safety and a gap up to 148-06 within prior price action. Probing higher to 148-24 was reversed back down to 147-21, which should break along with 147-14 to signal the bounce was only a detour and that 145-24 remains in-play.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Economic weakness anticipated by escalating the China trade war had triggered a gap down Sunday night under Thursday’s 60.95 low to 60.05. Perhaps the other news of US battleship assets being moved closer to Iran helped price recover back to unchanged at 62.00, and then into positive territory at 62.75 and easily positioned to trigger the 63.25 buy signal Tuesday if a bottom has formed.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow unchanged ranging around 2.56 Sunday night suddenly broke lower Monday to test 2.51, still having room down to 2.49 before suggesting the recent rally is just being corrected but reversed.
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Mid-day Update… NO-BIAS.
Consolidating the morning’s recovery attempt.
The open’s blip-down to 2894.00 had reacted up sharply to test 2911.00. Forming a Rising Wedge from there greeted the bias environment at 2917.50. The window began lapsing at its 2924.50 high. Flat-to-lower ranging since then has held 2915.00 as support.
The market is still deep into negative territory from Friday’s close. It’s still at or above Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 high. Its recovery would suggest that strong-handed buyers are targeting a retest of last week’s highs.
So, wasn’t 2920.00 recovered through a relevant timing window? This morning’s bias environment did start and finish lapsing above 2920.00 between 11:30-noon. But an interim dip down to 2917.50 still overlapped 2920.00, so its recovery is not complete.
Exiting this afternoon’s bias environment above 2920.00 or closing above it would still be credible. Until then, the recovery attempt is vulnerable to being reversed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 7, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s slow start to econ reports is sort of interrupted by Tuesday’s Jobs Openings data, which can either confirm Friday’s big number or refute it. Any bullish reaction should be only temporary, if not already fully discounted. While contradicting Friday’s number could surprise the rally.
Robert Kaplan Speaks
7:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2922.00 | 2922.50 |
| …would target | 2927.50 | 2928.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2912.50 | 2913.25 |
| …would target | 2906.25 | 2907.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED.
Post-open surge holds the overnight open.
The post-open surge pierced Sunday night’s 2917.75 opening print by 6 ticks, then reacted down to 2913.75. 
A sell signal is sitting one tick lower. Back above 2920.00 would resume the rally, next targeting 2927.50.
Significant overnight resistance had formed at 2904.00. The open blipped-down to touch 2894.00. Breaking under it through the open would have been problematic to a recovery. Its reaction up quickly triggered the 2903.25 buy signal, extending since then up to 2919.25.
A correction has room down to 2907.00 before suggesting something deeper underway. Something deeper would suggest that buyers weren’t strong-handed, and fresh session lows could be tested or broken.
Otherwise, no correction is needed before resuming the rally. But resuming the rally without a correction must still exceed 2927.50 through a relevant timing window to confirm that strong-handed sponsorship has absorbed the drop.