S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.25 | 2892.50 |
| …would target | 2898.50 | 2898.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2879.50 | 2880.00 |
| …would target | 2873.00 | 2873.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED.
Early buyers miss bite after bite.
Opening above 2920.00 would have been optimal to absorbing the overnight selling. 
Alternatively, further backing-and-filling down to 2910.00-2911.00 could have exited the bias environment above 2920.00 to trap extra shorts.
Exiting the open any lower would suggest that yesterday’s recovery must be retraced, regardless of the retracement’s purpose.
So, a last-minute pre-open low at 2902.50 that popped-up through the open could have formed a low, but 2910.00-2911.00 wasn’t probed for long enough to break its resistance. Lower and lower lows have made a retest of Sunday night’s 2883.50 low down to 2882.00 likely.
Exiting the bias environment and entering the noon hour under 2882.00 would suggest a deeper drop underway, next targeting 2846.00-2851.00. Otherwise, recovering 2901.00 would be a first step to absorbing this round of selling pressure, albeit still requiring the confirmation of recovering 2910.00-2911.00, too.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Complacency, not.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Sunday night in reaction to China trade talks news presented the same opportunity as it always has for any other shallower, intraday reaction, regardless of direction. Fading the headline reaction has been a reliable trade, which overnight traders already began exploiting from the 2883.50 Globex low. That was 63 points under Friday’s close, which recovered to 2904.00-2905.00 ahead of Monday’s open. The open’s blip-down to 2894.00 reacted up immediately and through the morning to probe Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 by nearly 5 points. A 10-point correction through the noon hour reacted back up to attack session highs. But the no-bias environment required waiting to resume the rally, which it did with a vengeance surging to 2938.00. The last half-hour attacked 2930.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another China trade talks headline preceded the Globex open hard, triggering a spike down to 2910.00. Ranging sideways was resisted by 2920.00, until another headline triggered a 15-point spike up to 2930.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending down gradually retraced it all to consolidate just under 2920.00, and now another spike down is testing 2913.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing yesterday above Thursday’s 2920.00 afternoon high suggested buyers have regained traction to potentially retest last week’s highs. Exiting today’s open back under 2920.00 would invalidate that traction, at least requiring buyers to form new traction to avoid reversing down. Temporary backing-and-filling would be optimal holding post-open tests of 2920.00 as support. Probes down to 2910.00-2911.00 could still recover. But any lower through a relevant timing window could put yesterday’s pre-open lows into play.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2918.00 would likely also exceed the 2921.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would likely at least trigger the 2927.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2930.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2939.00 | 2939.50 |
| …would target | 2946.00 | 2946.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2927.00 | 2927.75 |
| …would target | 2920.75 | 2921.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s 2883.50 low is irrelevant, despite being 63 points under Friday’s close. 
Much more important is that Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 high was recovered through the close. A new rally leg may not be underway, but retesting last week’s 2961.25 high may be in-play.
Avoiding a deeper meltdown Monday largely depended on holding above 2892.00-2894.00. It could have been probed if recovered during a relevant timing window. But only its upper-end was touched, and only by the session’s first minute. The balance of the morning trended up to 2924.50.
The afternoon’s no-bias environment restrained itself from breaking higher until coming within view of lapsing. Then its 2922.50 bias-up signal broke higher with a vengeance. The next higher candidate for correcting the recovery was tested at 2934.75 before entering the final hour. Fluctuating equally around 2934.75 up to 2938.25 reacted down to 2932.00 before the close.
No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s close doesn’t require being filled. But just avoiding a reversal down — which is not at all assured — would confirm new highs are in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.