S&P
Mid-day Update… Runaway.
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens for today’s last half-hour. Market Wrap will be held a half-hour early at 3:03 ET.
Having rejected tests of both bias-down parameters this morning, offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters were put into play. 
Triggering late — by the grace period — made the upside objectives only likely instead of required. But extending to fresh highs through 10:30 had at least confirmed the no-bias.
Reacting down along the way from 2812.50 had potential to 2801.50. Stopping short at 2804.50 and still triggering another buy signal as the bias environment began lapsing made the offsetting tests likely today. And now they’ve been probed up to 2828.50.
The overnight low was 2891.00.
That’s a lot of buying pressure. And a lot of optimism, especially ahead of tomorrow morning’s pre-open Employment Situation report. It follows a lot of selling and pessimism, so maybe buyers aren’t relatively extended. And they’ve overcome the 2815.50-2822.00 targets. Currently, this afternoon’s 2822.00 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. It’s next target is 2828.50-2831.00, the lower-end now being touched.
Today is not a “session-long rally” setup, so there’s no assurance of extending higher. But even if we knew with 100% certainty that today’s high has printed, there’s also no assurance of reversing down, instead of simply drifting sideways through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 3, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s pre-open Employment Situation report is essentially released in a vacuum, which has become less common. So, its effect on price action can be more significant. The post-open reports aren’t reliable for influencing price action on their own, but any reaction should duplicate the pre-open report’s reaction.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2815.00 | 2815.50 |
| …would target | 2821.50 | 2822.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 207.50 | 2808.25 |
| …would target | 2801.75 | 2802.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging in, instead of just digging.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m away from screens for today’s last half-hour. Market Wrap will be held 30 minutes early.
A different crowd showed up at the open. The 2791.00 overnight low had been retraced already to attack 2799.00. Opening at 2797.50 immediately blipped down, but only blipped down. Soon, the pre-open retracement was resuming, and at a steeper slope.
2801.50 certainly was not isolated. It wasn’t even touched during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But it was recovered on the way up to the 2807.50 bias-down signal. Touching it in time to invoke the grace period then extended to 2810.50 triggering “late no-bias.” That’s now being probed up to 2812.50.
Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters is in-play. Likely, but not a requirement. Even if required, not assured of avoiding an interim corrective dip. Especially since testing 2801.50 was isolated not to the overnight, and not to the opening 15 minutes of volatility but only to the first half-hour. That’s not optimal, so this recovery attempt is vulnerable.
Back under 2707.50 would start to signal a retest of 2801.50 underway. Meanwhile, testing the 2815.50 bias-up signal only 3 points higher would neutralize its attraction.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Delayed, delayed FOMC reaction?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s delayed surge up to 2826.00 was doomed to failure, on two counts. It was no-bias trending after failng to trigger the morning’s 2823.25 bias-up signal. And it was unlikely to attract sponsorship ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC event. But its reaction down was less inhibited, exceeding its 2815.00 target by 61.8% down to 2808.00. That wasn’t necessarily sponsorship, but gravity revisiting the range’s other end. And it helped to soften the blow, as a brief dip to 2805.50 stopped 1 point short of its potential, and bounced back up to 2817.00. But the bounce was otherwise unimpressive, and the close dipped back down to 2808.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute dip was initially retraced back up to Wednesday afternoon’s bounce up to 2815.00. The afternoon’s low was being attacked by midnight. And probed ahead of Europe’s opens down to 2804.50. The trending has only extended — relentlessly — down to 2791.00.
If, then…
The overnight slide confirms yesterday’s conclusion: That the FOMC’s delayed knee-jerk reaction (is that a thing?) to within only 1 point of 2804.50, and the unimpressive bounce, had meant the morning’s slide didn’t discount the FOMC events enough. Or, that other events are still being discounted. Potential to retest 2801.50 remained alive. And there’s no bullish reason for that again, unless isolated. Overnight is one possibility, if the open has recovered back above yesterday’s 2805.50-2808.00 lows. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is the 2775.00-2781.00 area. And the next major observation is whether tomorrow’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, or weakness.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2797.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2801.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2804.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2807.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.