S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s reversal down from its 1.1755 bounce limit gapped down Tuesday to 1.1675. That filled the gap back to Friday’s close, and its natural support helped to launch a bounce back up to 1.1740. Another break under Monday’s 1.1688 low would target the gap back down to last Tuesday’s 1.1550 low close.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another attack on recent lows down to 1293.50 was recovered through the morning to attack 1305.00, filling the gap back up to last Thursday’s close. The attraction above didn’t require being neutralized, but now there is no excuse to further delay breaking under 1295.00 and resuming the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness down to 16.37 was recovered back into positive territory to test 16.55 resistance. Closing any higher would have been bullish, but delaying the decline’s resumption is not bearish.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow break under the much-tested 143-20 sell signal was retraced immediately by gapping back up to it Tuesday. The rejection wasn’t exploited by firming any further, as the session essentially fluctuated narrowly around 143-20.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight at 64.22 didn’t extend down intraday. While a buy signal can be calculated at 66.25, it’s too late to greet either Tuesday’s post-close API or Wednesday’s EIA reports from a position of strength. So, a negative knee-jerk reaction down can’t be discounted, or its potential to extend down further.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Last Thursday’s gap up to prior highs under 3.00 had not extended or retraced, not until Tuesday’s opening dip filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 2.88 close. It can be tested down to 2.85 before signaling something more substantial underway. Meanwhile, at least one more new trend high close remains outstanding.
Mid-day Update… Still anybody’s game.
Morning dip holds support.
noN-bias triggered this morning while a surge overlapped its 2751.00 bias-up signal. RSIs diverged negatively, and the surge reversed down as quickly, and more substantially. The morning’s bias environment low was 2739.00.
Exiting the bias environment under the lower-end of 2743.00-2747.00 would have been bearish. It was certainly probed, but not decisively when the bias environment had finished lapsing. And RSIs diverging positively at the low’s retest have bounced through the noon hour.
If you’re keeping track of the score, it’s Bulls 0, Bears 0. Actually, considering that each side made an effort, the score is more like Bulls <-1>, Bears <-1>.
Bouncing through the noon hour managed to touch this afternoon’s 2747.75 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Again. It held, triggering no-bias. Hovering there into the bias environment lapsing would be vulnerable — if not also likely — to launch an upleg into the close. And almost any afternoon upleg from here would likely be aggressive and substantial.
Otherwise, back under 2743.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. And exiting the bias environment back under the 2743.00-2747.00 range could trend down through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Wednesday’s reports is either high-profile or has a track record of influencing price action. The EIA report could indirectly, by triggering a reaction in Crude Oil.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2748.00 | 2747.75 |
| …would target | 2753.50 | 2753.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2739.25 | 2739.00 |
| …would target | 2733.25 | 2733.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tripping up.
Finally extending, only to hold resistance.
Fresh highs attacking 2752.00 were retraced to attack 2744.00, and to greet the open at 2747.00. 
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging eventually eked out a surge up to 2752.50. More fresh highs, and an opportunity to trigger the 2751.00 bias-up signal.
Too little, too late? Well, too late, at least. The bias-up signal was still being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. No bias objective requires a test, and no bias parameter is required to hold.
The setup could have extended higher anyway, which it tried. But already having backed-and-filled, we knew any more backing-and-filling was probably actually a reversal. Which it was.
Now the 2743.00-2747.00 range is being tested as support down to 2746.00. The range may yet hold, and launch an afternoon upleg — which we’d expect to be aggressive and substantial. Otherwise, extending back down under 2743.00 through a relevant timing window like the bias environment’s exit would next target 2736.00.