S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Making an effort.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open teased at launching another gap-and-run session. The open did gap up 8 points to 2742.00, and almost immediately extended another 8 points to 2749.25. That post-open surge was retraced almost immediately, too, but the gap up was maintained. Its extension never really repeated, nor was it rejected, containing all price action for the balance of the session. The 2743.00-2747.00 target area was thoroughly tested, and its range defined the session’s mid-range. Its upper-end defined the close — fulfilling buying pressure, without gaining traction or rejecting it.
Overnight action’s new info…
The 2743.00-2747.00 not only persisted initially overnight, and was also influential, pushing price back down from its upper-end to its lower-end. the lower-end was tested down to 2742.00 before midnight, then touched again at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back up to 2747.00 worked higher its way higher to attack 2752.00. A reaction down is now testing yesterday’s 2749.25 high as support.
If, then…
Yesterday was the first close above a 2-week trading range. Last week began with the first close under the same 2-week trading range. It was recovered back into the range instead of producing a second consecutive lower close. The pattern is slightly different now — especially having closed within 2743.00-2747.00 resistance instead of beyond it — but no second consecutive higher close today would still not be bullish for the rally effort. Yesterday’s highs are only being overlapped overnight, but that’s still an effort. So, dipping back to the overnight lows can’t be relied upon to recover. Holding at or above yesterday’s lows would keep the door open to extending higher.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.25 would be likely to trigger exceed the 2751.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2751.25 | 2751.00 |
| …would target | 2757.50 | 2757.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2741.75 | 2741.75 |
| …would target | 2735.50 | 2735.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP-SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
I’m unavailable for Monday’s final hour, so the Market Wrap was held early. At that time, the morning’s 2749.25 high remained intact. So did resistance at the afternoon’s 2747.00 bias-up signal. But neither was yet rejected.
The open’s surge had been retraced to the open, which held its test. Two tests, actually. Its recovery to 2747.00 was corrected but not reversed. And 2747.00 was being retested into the final hour. But it wasn’t (yet) recovered.
Closing beyond either end of 2743.00-2747.00 would be likely to extend in that direction, but still needing confirmation on Tuesday. Closing beyond either of the 2743.00-2747.00 range would still be vulnerable through Tuesday’s open to reverse sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday and Friday’s failed pre-open rallies were never actually rejected, only retraced, which kept alive the 1.1755 bounce potential. Its eventual test before Monday’s open reacted down sharply to 1.1688, stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1.1672 close. Not actually filling the gap before trying to rally would be premature, and likely to retest recent lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s 1294.00 low was recovered to attack Friday’s 1303.00 high to within $1. Much of it was retraced to turn slightly negative into the afternoon, still needing a fresh low close to confirm momentum has reversed back down.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging into Monday’s open tested 16.55 before reversing back down and piercing negative territory under 16.45, still not yet confirming the near-term resolution will resume the decline.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep, which trades at a 28-tick discount from Jun]… Gapping back down to 142-24 Monday — which had held Tuesday and Wednesday’s pullbacks — eked lower intraday to attack 147-00. A gap there on the way up now offers obligatory support on the way down, but the decline has little if any time to delay resolving down if that’s it’s intent.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The reversal down from having triggered the 67.90 buy signal extended to fresh relative lows Monday testing 64.60. That’s “lower prior highs” from earlier this year, a likely at least to produce an obligatory bounce.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s narrow flat-to-lower range was more confirming to Friday’s own narrow range, than to Thursday’s breakout that still lacks a higher confirming close. A second consecutive higher close would be preferable.
Mid-day Update… Half-hearted.
Gap up holding, not extending.
The open’s gap up to 2742.00 had extended quickly to 2749.25. Then it was retraced entirely through the first hour, more so down to 2740.50. Dipping into the bias environment exit held a retest of 2740.50.
Bouncing through the noon hour held this afternoon’s 2747.00 bias-up signal. A blip-up pierced it, but it was almost still being tested at the bottom of the hour. This is a no-bias environment.
Without resuming the open’s run, the gap-and-run is just a gap. Gapping is neither bullish nor bearish — that’s the resolution’s job to define. Gapping up and not running isn’t bearish. Gapping up and running and retracing can be bearish, but can still be recovered.
That’s where the market is now — gapped and ran, then retraced back down to the gap. Resuming the rally would be bullish. Extending down any deeper would be bearish.