S&P
Mid-day Update… Eerily calm.
Support chipped away.
A 6-point range between 2713.00-2719.00 has developed since this morning’s bias environment started lapsing. The open’s swings were wild, surging 5 points up to 2719.50 and plunging 10-11 points to 2709.00. But they weren’t so wild that the market should be so stunned. Extended periods of wide gyrations can earn periods of calm to compensate. This is not that.
Expirations are always a wild card. If their opens aren’t already trending or trying, then it’s difficult to start trending later. But this is not that, either. Today’s open did try to trend, both up into 2718.50-2719.25 resistance and back down again, twice. Developing almost exclusively in negative territory.
This afternoon’s 2713.25 bias-down avoided triggering. Its support is not being exploited. Instead, price has been hovering there, ranging narrowly, as it did through the noon hour’s second half-hour. The bias-down signal should define the no-bias environment’s lower-end until at least coming within view of lapsing. Expiration’s wild card suggests taking seriously any break lower.
As does the bearish WedEX. Two earlier setups today had potential to reverse up — the late no-bias, and the recovered plunge. Is the bearish WedEX influence already pressuring prices lower? Regardless, the indicator doesn’t require a steep slope or substantial drop. But it should at least absorb and retrace bounces. Back above 2719.00 would make downside difficult.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 21, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s pre-open econ report is high-profile, but has no reliable track record for influencing price action. The afternoon’s Fed speakers may both inhibit price action and then trigger volatility.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:15 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
2:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.75 | 2721.50 |
| …would target | 2727.50 | 2727.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2713.50 | 2713.25 |
| …would target | 2705.75 | 2705.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Paradigm shiftiness.
Pre-open slide puts the session on defense.
I recorded this morning’s Market Tour while the 2727.00 overnight high’s retest was reacting down several points. The reaction became a steep slide down to 2712.00. 
The open held its bounce potential up to 2718.50-2719.25 before finally reversing back down to the 2712.00 pre-open low.
But rather than fall off the cliff, surge retested 2719.25. The 2715.00 bias-down signal had already invoked its grace period, and the surge made no-bias likely. The surge’s catalyst was a news headline that’s likely to be retraced, but not quickly. In fact, late no-bias triggered late.
Or, did late no-bias trigger too early? Only one minute later, the 2715.00 bias-down signal was breaking lower. Hard. One minute earlier would have triggered noN-bias, and 2-3 minutes earlier would have triggered late bias-down. In fact, the 2708.00 bias-down target has been met to within 3 ticks, so even a timely bias-down would leave no “unfinished business below.”
But, what above that late no-bias — and more specifically, what about its offsetting test of the 2725.25 bias-up signal? Late signals aren’t required to meet their objectives. But they become likelier if not rejected. And now 2715.00 is being recovered as the bias environment starts lapsing. It’s an unusual situation, but there’s still a window for upside before this afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence arrives.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Non-starters.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s rally repeated Wednesday’s equally doomed attempt, doomed for buyers not having gained traction the prior day. That usually means they don’t try, but in these these past two instance they did. So, despite quickly recovering from a post-open 7-point plunge that probed overnight lows down to 2713.50, the morning bias environment reversed up to touch 2732.00. And despite having touched 2732.00, the afternoon bias environment reversed down sharply to touch 2711.00. A 12-point bounce into the close only pierced positive territory before dipping to attack 2716.00 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
A choppy range was able to get back up to resistance, and has converted it into support, but has been unable to get away from it. Blipping-down to retest 2716.00 snapped back up to the late-afternoon bounce’s 2723.00 peak — resistance. Probing gradually higher and higher eventually surged up to 2727.00 through Europe’s opens. No defensive posturing preceded it, which was unusual for this week. Which may explain the quick reaction down to 2720.00. Another attack on 2727.00 is also reacting down, back to 2723.00 — now support.
If, then…
At least it sounds bearish. Ill-timed rallies that doomed them to failure, tests of higher prior lows and prior highs that were rejected back under support, recovered dips that failed to gain traction. But sellers have yet to exploit these upside weaknesses. Yesterday’s rejection of the morning’s fresh recovery high by the afternoon’s complete retracement back down to the morning’s low still closed above Wednesday’s prior low. Although sellers gained no traction otherwise, but they can by proxy of opening weakly enough this morning. But there’s no assurance of that, as bearish WedEX’s influence is scheduled for this afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2727.25 would be likely to trigger the 2725.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2721.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.