S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is fairly steady, with so high-profile items, but not reliable for influencing price action. The pre-open report and speaker might set a tone for reactions to the post-open items.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET.
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2718.25 | 2717.00 |
| …would target | 2726.00 | 2724.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2705.25 | 2704.25 |
| …would target | 2698.00 | 2697.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS–DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… More neutralization below.
Not so much required, as outstanding.
Friday’s reversal from the morning’s fresh highs had probed negative territory very briefly that afternoon.
It just didn’t qualify as correcting the two prior sessions’ substantial combined rally. A deeper correction was likely.
Monday morning’s rally only exacerbated that corrective influence, by expending more buying pressure from a shallow pullback. Expending, and fulfilling. And that afternoon’s probe into negative territory confirmed the market knew its limitations, even leaving unfinished business below to encourage the correction to extend.
Which last night’s dip did, and could have fulfilled. Its pre-open reaction up to unchanged offered an opportunity to reverse up, but its natural resistance only launched a new downleg. The next lower objective other than bias calculations was to test last Thursday afternoon’s 2713.00 low. Obligatory support, at best, and likely to be probed down to 2705.00.
That was just met down to 2703.25. Oversold RSIs have helped to launch a bounce, now testing 2711.00, with potential to probe it up to 2714.00. That’s not required, and not required to hold, and back under 2707.75 would signal the decline is resuming.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Was it enough?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday paid the price, or start paying it, for Friday not actually having corrected Wednesday and Thursday’s surges. Meanwhile, Monday was also the second consecutive session to probe fresh highs and then reverse back into negative territory. That’s less relevant for Friday, which isn’t as relevant of a session, but the combination is distributive anyway. Monday’s 2724.25 fell back into “lower prior highs” at Friday afternoon’s range. RSIs were only on the cusp of being overbought, which would otherwise be “unfinished business” above. And unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2721.50. But both recent sessions avoided closing negative, and the ongoing trend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, so there’s not yet a trend reversal signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly between 2728.00-2731.00 started breaking lower on China’s disappointing economic data. Extending to 2720.50 fulfilled Monday’s unfinished business below. Its reaction bounced into and out of Europe’s opens on the way up to 2727.00. Its 61.8% retracement down to this morning’s 2724.00 bias-down signal was recovered to attack 2729.00. That’s unchanged from yesterday’s close, and natural resistance, which has reacted down to attack 2724.00.
If, then…
The likelihood for a failed probe lower wasn’t necessarily fulfilled by recovering the overnight dip. It did neutralize the nearest attraction below, and is trying to avoid triggering the bias-down signal. The recovery so far is only back to unchanged, which is also natural resistance. Triggering bias-down is still possible, and would be credible for probing Thursday afternoon’s low under 2713.00. Otherwise, rallying this morning could be limited to 2737.50, or a retest of yesterday’s highs — which would be bullish if it were to avoid snapping back down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.25 would be less likely to trigger the 2724.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2727.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2732.25 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2733.25 | 2732.25 |
| …would target | 2739.00 | 2738.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2724.75 | 2724.00 |
| …would target | 2718.75 | 2718.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.