S&P
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2671.25 | 2671.75 |
| …would target | 2677.00 | 2677.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2658.00 | 2658.50 |
| …would target | 2649.50 | 2650.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hovering.
Choppy open holds the pre-open range.
The open immediately broke under 2660.00 and extended down to 2651.00. That took longer than the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and still held the overnight Head & Shoulders pattern’s neckline. Breaking any lower would be too late to ensure recovery.
But there was no break any lower. The rubber band had not been stretched deeply enough to snap back up. Bouncing back into the range hovered around the open.
Still hovering around the open. Bias-up triggered, and was renewed by also exceeding its 2656.25 bias-up target through 10:15. Its renewed bias-up target at 2644.00 doesn’t require being met. But any reaction down during the bias environment must be defined or contained by the 2647.50 bias-up siganl.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stiffed resistance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
An overnight Symmetrical Triangle’s false break was already reversing back up pre-open from 2559.50. Wednesday’s open extended the reversal more substantially, all but ensuring the overnight plunge would not resume. It did not. Sellers were never actually marginalized intraday, but they would be influential again only during the noon hour’s exit into the bias environment, dropping from 2620.00 to 2601.50. That ended abruptly as the rally extended sharply higher to almost 2650.00 into the final minutes. The actual cash session close held 2644.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Slowing the pace of yesterday’s rally hasn’t stopped it. A reaction down from 2660.00 to 2653.00 was recovered to 2667.00, which also reacted down to 2653.00. Its recovery to 2660.00 is forming a potential Head & Shoulders pattern, and also reinforcing the relevance of 2660.00.
If, then…
Extending any higher would seriously undermine the near-term downside momentum, especially if maintained through today’s close. Significant retracement limits are being tested, both at yesterday’s close back under 2644.00 and at the overnight probe above 2660.00. Closing above both today would enable a higher objective at 2722.00. Meanwhile, having tested 2660.00, closing back under 2644.00 could act as an accelerant to reverse momentum down aggressively into the weekend — and out of it… Meanwhile, the potential Head & Shoulders pattern forming overnight has yet to break lower, and may not. Regardless, its intraday influence will be defined during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2660.00 would be likely to exceed the 2656.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2650.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2647.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2646.25 | 2647.50 |
| …would target | 2655.25 | 2656.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2637.50 | 2638.50 |
| …would target | 2628.75 | 2629.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Any opportunity to reinstate the 1987-style crash template had all but disappeared at Wednesday’s open. The overnight Symmetrical Triangle’s false break down was reversing up more substantially, instead of extending the overnight plunge.
That didn’t foreclose upon potential to reverse down less aggressively into the afternoon, but the rally extended instead. Ultimately, 90 points off the 2559.50 overnight low and testing 2650.00 was probing above Monday’s 2638.00 high.
The recovery of dropping from last Thursday’s high barely exceeded its 2644.00 bounce limit’s room for noise at the close. But the limit was holding before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close. The similar bounce limit has yet to be met at 2660.00, where retracing the entire last downleg from last Tuesday’s high could still be only temporary.
So, extending any higher would seriously undermine the near-term downside momentum. And it would suggest a longer delay in at least retesting the lows down to 2509.00-2511.00. Almost any immediate weakness Thursday would be credible for extending down into and out of the weekend.
In case you missed it earlier, click here for a quick video description of how the overnight Symmetrical Triangle offered guidance and confidence to being long.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.