S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s reaction up held a test of 1.2365 whose recovery would reverse momentum up, and leave no unfinished business below since Tuesday’s fresh low close already fulfilled it. The trend otherwise remains down.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to retest 1348.00 up to 1352.50 was reversed back down to 1339.00, whose break would start to signal the recent rally had failed and momentum is reversing down. Not following-through Thursday could marginalize sellers to allow another rally leg.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly was reversed back down to and through 16.40 to 16.28. A second consecutive lower close on Thursday would confirm the recent rally had failed, and that fresh lows are in-play.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The gap back up to Monday’s 146-26 close was only attacked Wednesday up to 146-18 before testing Tuesday’s lows down to 145-18. A pullback still has room down to the 145-00 area while still being likely to recover and at least fill the gap back to 146-26 .
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap down under 62.50 and test of 62.05 doesn’t require being retested, despite being left outstanding after recovering back above the 62.62 pullback limit. Having said that, only filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s ~63.45 close without closing higher can’t afford to hesitate extending the recovery Thursday.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending the bounce back above 2.70 to 2.74 was retraced a little before Wednesday’s close, enough to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but not to be in a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… More to come?
Plunge’s retracement hasn’t actually reversed.
Reversing more substantially than the overnight false break did get to this morning’s 2595.00 bias-up signal. It was probed during the bias environment, but ultimately touched one last time as the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Extending higher into the noon hour attacked 2620.00 to within 2-3 ticks.
That was the minimum objective for extending any higher. It neutralized the overbought RSIs at yesterday’s high. And this afternoon’s 2620.00 bias-up target is essentially met to prevent creating “unfinished business above.”
There’s no requirement for the balance of the session to trend either way. But unless 2620.00 is exceeded — and preferably soon — then the pattern remains vulnerable to retracing much of all of this morning’s recovery.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Thursday’s econ reports has a reliable track record for influencing price action, although at least Claims is high-profile. The afternoon is greeted by a Fed speaker, which might help to keep alive some volatility when the afternoon before Friday’s payrolls often become subdued.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2606.25 | 2607.50 |
| …would target | 2619.75 | 2620.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2593.25 | 2594.50 |
| …would target | 2583.75 | 2585.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… One false break deserves another.
Rallying into and out of the open.
The last overnight downleg was a plunge to 2559.50, which had originated from a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern tends often to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Being an overnight pattern, its influence had to be obvious through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to be influential intraday.
In fact, the triangle’s upper-end was retraced entirely up to 2581.50 before the open. But it was fresh post-open highs that confirmed a bigger reversal underway. And by any measure, the triangle’s false break was exceeded by rallying to 2595.00.
Meanwhile, 2595.00 is this morning’s bias-up signal. And it triggered (late after invoking the grace period). Its 2585.75 bias-down target is already met, so it won’t become “unfinished business below.” But 2595.00 should still define the window’s upper-end, or else require being retraced.
In fact, 2595.00 is being probed right now up to 2601.00. It requires being retraced. Actually reversing back under 2593.00 would start to signal this morning’s bounce had ended and is reversing back down. Otherwise, extending the rally this afternoon would target a retest of yesterday afternoon’s overbought RSIs at 2618.75.
BONUS: Here’s a video description of the Symmetrical Triangle’s setup, and the overnight influence’s setup:
https://ilos.video/gIYi77