S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 29, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy. And it’s busy with a lot of high-profile items. Only three have a reliable track record for influencing price action, but a busy calendar can leverage the impact of other reports. Meanwhile, post-open reports are likely to react similarly to pre-open reports.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2620.25 | 2620.75 |
| …would target | 2627.75 | 2628.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2600.50 | 2601.00 |
| …would target | 2592.50 | 2593.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No resolve.
Choppy open is contained within choppier overnight range.
The 2600.00 overnight low was retraced steadily to test the 2624.00 overnight highs. Up to 2625.25, whose recovery through the open would have been bullish
. Econ reports triggered blip-up to 2627.00 that reacted back down to attack overnight low.
That was all pre-open, Yet it pretty much describes all post-open action.
Bouncing to the 2621.25 bias-up signal and dropping to the 2606.50 bias-down signal each were probed by a couple of points. On their first time. Retesting he bias-up signal got to 2626.25. Its reaction down retested 2606.50.
Ultimately, no-bias triggered. Having tested both bias signals already, neither requires a retest. But either should define that end of the window if tested.
Should.
The 2606.50 bias-down signal is being probed again now, during a no-bias environment, like yesterday afternoon’s no-bias trending. Which collapsed. And this probe is now testing 2599.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Holding pattern.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Nothing about Tuesday’s open was bullish, but, wow. Monday’s rally had closed above Friday afternoon’s prior high which put into play a much higher recovery target. Extending higher into Monday’s close retraced Friday morning’s high, too, but was still overlapping it. Extending even higher overnight was already reacting down into Tuesday’s open. And the opening 15 minutes of volatility was exited back at Friday morning’s high. Tests of both bias-up parameters were rejected. All of which is bearish. And only mildly productive, hardly attacking support at Friday afternoon’s high before trying to recover. That premature optimism can be more bearish than the bearish setups, when the bearish setups haven’t yet been fulfilled. It was followed by an extended optimism which avoided triggering bias-down, but fell anyway — and fell sharply enough to invalidate a required retracement. I was suspicious of that late break’s timing, but it was very productive, anyway.
Overnight action’s new info…
I had noted a 2600.00-2614.00 range before the position-squaring window. Closing within it Tuesday would not be predictive either way. The afternoon’s plunge tested it twice down to 2599.00 and 2596.00, then bounced to 2614.00 at the cash session close. Globex initially fluctuated around the close up to 2624.00. Its eventual reaction down into and out of Europe’s opens touched 2600.00. Bouncing is already retesting the range’s upper-end.
If, then…
Exiting the open beyond either end of 2600.00-2614.00 would be likely to trend in that direction. While there’s no assurance that the upcoming holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness will be influential, its influence doesn’t begin until this afternoon. Which leaves this morning as optimal for extending the decline, if the decline intends to extend. If the decline does extend to close under Friday’s lows, I would be skeptical that a bullish influence was intended.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2625.25 would be likely to trigger the 2621.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2630.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2628.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2641.50. Exiting the open under 2614.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2620.50 | 2621.25 |
| …would target | 2627.50 | 2628.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2605.50 | 2606.50 |
| …would target | 2598.25 | 2599.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.