S&P
Mid-day Update… Patience, or anxiousness?
Trending attempts scurry back to unchanged.
The open’s surge above overnight highs came too late to be credible.
It quickly peaked at 2820.25 and reversed down sharply 5 points where natural support at unchanged held. More weak-handed buying probed higher to 2824.25, fulfilling this morning’s bias-up target, and the buying pressure that created it.
A more consequential reversal collapsed down to 2802.50. That was well under the morning’s 2816.75 bias-up signal, during a bias-up environment. And that’s a reflection of sellers become less patient — like mid-morning yesterday’s collapse.
Now the noon hour and bias environment have bounced back up to this morning’s 2816.75 bias-up signal, retracing its premature break. The attraction above is neutralized, and the weekend is fast-approaching. Impatient sellers would be entirely credible for triggering a new break lower, especially so long as the afternoon bounce doesn’t recover 2818.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 29, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. The PMI result is released privately to institutional subscribers several minutes before being released publicly, usually to the same effect. Consumer Sentiment need not react similarly.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:25 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2810.00 | 2814.50 |
| …would target | 2816.50 | 2821.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2797.50 | 2802.00 |
| …would target | 2792.25 | 2796.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A little late to rise.
Post-open probe’s sponsorship is suspect.
Recovering from its initial 2795.00 low, the overnight Globex session eventually recovered to probe positive territory up to 2814.50. 
Its pre-open reaction held the 2806.00 bias-down signal as support, which held and recovered to greet the open at yesterday’s 2815.50 last prior high.
Kind of late to suddenly attract sponsorship for probing a prior high, especially after hovering just under it for several hours prior.
The surge’s 10-point reaction down from 2820.50 was recovered entirely, but not immediately. Extending higher held resistance at the 2823.25 bias-up target but still held up easily to trigger the 2816.75 bias-up signal. This is a bias-up environment, bias-up target met. Nothing prevents it from extending higher — a fresh high just touched 2824.25 — but a reliable durable recover would have been probing above the bias-up target earlier by 10:15.
Back under 2819.25 would start to reverse momentum down. Probing under the 2816.75 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment would require its retracement. Failing to hold 2816.75 as support after meeting its target would be bearish. Extending higher anyway would next target 2827.25 and potentially 2833.75.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Choppiness is alive and well.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wide overnight swings up to 2832.00 and down to 2814.50 had preceded Wednesday’s opening surge back up to 2831.00. Which led to another wide, choppy round-trip, as last week’s strong-handed distribution resumed. This stage is less patient, as seen in Wednesday’s late-morning collapse to attack 2791.50. The low stopped optimistically short of touching Monday’s ~2790.00 lows before a bounce tested and retested 2813.00 resistance into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another multi-directional night. Dipping into Wednesday’s 2810.00 cash session close barely hesitated extending lower through the Globex open to touch 2795.00. All of which was retraced into Europe’s opens. A reaction there has recovered to probe positive territory. But at this point, 4-5 points into positive territory and attacking 2814.50 has yet to touch yesterday’s late 2816.25 high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering from a dip is the basis for accumulation. But, accumulation by whom? By weak-hands, if they can’t recover the retracement back above a relevant resistance and through a relevant timing window. Last night’s dip didn’t probe yesterday’s low, but it was deep enough that its recovery would put buyers on offense for the morning. The line in the sand for qualifying as a recovery is only being attacked, and it’s meanwhile resistance, so sellers will have the chance for a fresh start through the open. And with the weekend approaching, either resuming the decline or invalidating it by attempting to close back above 2827.00 should start becoming obvious.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2806.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2803.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2816.25 bias-up signal.