S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2812.00 | 2816.75 |
| …would target | 2818.50 | 2823.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2801.25 | 2806.00 |
| …would target | 2794.75 | 2799.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Aside from Tuesday’s correction day, last week’s distribution seems to be dominating again. Tuesday night’s 9-point rally to 2832.00 was retraced to 2814.50. And Wednesday’s opening surge to 2831.00 was retraced to 2817.50. Those round-trips are sort of a gentle reminder of last week’s distribution, albeit shallower, but distributive nonetheless.
In contrast, a stark reminder of Friday’s collapse followed Wednesday’s late-morning bounce to 2828.50. The consequences of distribution were another collapse to attack 2791.50.
The low stopped optimistically short of touching Monday’s ~2790.00 lows. RSIs diverging positively warned early of a bounce that tested and retested 2813.00 resistance. Resistance held through the close, keeping alive the late-morning collapse’s bearish momentum. The decline is still easily invalidated by closing back above 2827.00, but should meanwhile become obvious into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction day had resolved back down to Friday’s lows Tuesday. Fresh lows developed overnight into Wednesday’s open, suggesting the decline has resumed, targeting prior lows.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight was retraced into Wednesday’s open and extended down to 1308.00 support. The rally can’t tolerate much if any further deterioration any lower.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s retest of 15.27 represents a maximum pullback limit before trading any lower would invalidate the upside potential without yet triggering a new signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already probing higher overnight to 150-00 after Tuesday’s shallow pullback held 149-00, suggests the rally intends to extend much higher, so long as 149-00 continues to hold as support.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only filling the gap back up to 60.00 Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s EIA allowed its negative knee-jerk reaction to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 58.90 close. Which held, along with the same uptrending support that had defined Friday and Monday’s lows, and for which there was no bullish reason to revisit at this stage.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness tested the 2.73 gap down that had yet to be filled from above. Rather than react up, Wednesday’s open gapped down, which greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness that would likely cause an initially favorable reaction up to fail.
Mid-day Update… Game on! And off. And on!
Morning plunge further suggests that selling is widening.
NOTE: I changed the bias-up target from 2819.50 to 2811.50 based on the noon hour’s exit.
This morning’s choppy opening only got choppier, heading back down to a retest of its 2817.50 bias-down signal. 
A re-retest, since it had been tested already both pre-open and post-open. Probing under it would be no-bias trending that requires a retracement UNLESS the bias environment lapses under its 2710.75 bias-down target.
Which it did. On the way to sharply lower lows at 2791.75. Much earlier it had become likely the correction day was surely done, and last week’s distribution had resumed.
A corrective bounce was triggered above 2794.00 that became a bias-up. Touching its 2811.50 bias-up target is now reversing down. But this is still a bias-up environment, so testing its 2804.00 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end. Or be retraced unless the window lapses under its 2789.75 bias-down signal — under the signal, not its target, since the bias-up target is met.
Regardless, yesterday’s corrective session seems to be done. A retest of Monday’s low under 2790.00 is likely, and then 2770.00. That was a lot of distribution last week, and its next downleg should be more difficult to mask.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 28, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s econ reports are high-profile, but not reliable for influencing price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report. The afternoon’s Fed speakers should keep volatility alive.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
11:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:15 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
2:30 PM ET