S&P
Post-open Review… Looking forward to – or out for – the weekend.
Fresh pre-open lows lead circuitously to fresher post-open lows.
The overnight dip attacking 2695.00 and consolidating around 2701.50 had broken lower to 2684.50 far before the open. An isolation setup became impossible. Alternatively, the open began tracking a path I had outlined during my live pre-open update in the chaRTroom — 
blip-down, then reverse back up into a morning-long rally. Otherwise, sharply lower lows would be likely.
The post-open blip-down barely touched 2680.00-2681.00 support before reversing back up. The opening 15 minutes of volatility got to 2693.00. Reacting down to attack 2684.00 was too deep, already signaling momentum had reversed down. And undoing the recovery template.
Until it didn’t. And then until it did, again.
Another upleg nevertheless tested 2698.00. Despite coming after the last retracement, extending almost any higher would have reinstated the recovery template. But as if to compensate for the detour, those sharply lower lows came fast, sliding 25 points to 2672.50.
So long as 2680.00-2681.00 isn’t recovered, the trend remains down. An important support will have been broken. A test of 2652.00-2653.00 would be all but required. Back above 2680.00-2681.00 could otherwise be the last opportunity to prevent trending down even deeper into and out of the weekend.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Been here, done that, repeatedly.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s no-no-bias environment avoided triggering its 2719.00 bias-down signal, and surged through its 2725.25 bias-up signal to 2734.00. The no-bias trending was retraced before the FOMC news, which triggered a 12-point knee-jerk reaction up to 2744.00. Which triggered a 20-point collapse. Both within 5 minutes. Wide swings persisted as fresh lows were probed down to within ticks of the morning’s 2712.25 bias-down target. A 21-point bounce was mostly retraced into the close down to 2714.25. Oversold RSIs at the low require a retest. Tuesday morning’s “unfinished business below” at 2710.25 is outstanding, too.
Overnight action’s new info…
So much for Wednesday’s volatility. Right? Firming steadily into the Globex session recovered to test the lower-end of 2726.00-2727.00. Its reaction down attacked 2718.00 before trying to recover, but peaked at 61.8%. Reacting down again greeted Europe’s opens back at yesterday’s late low. And then lower. And then a lot lower. Collapsing sharply lower finally bounced back up to 2707.50, what is this morning’s bias-down target. A retest of the low down to 2696.00 reacted up to 2701.50, and ranged sideways at the lows.
If, then…
Attractions at yesterday’s 2712.75 low and Tuesday morning’s 2710.25 bias-down signal are neutralized. Isolating their tests to the overnight could have launched a multi-session recovery of the pullback from last week’s highs. That’s still possible, since tests of 2701.50 have been holding. Repeatedly. Recovering again in this setup all but requires opening back above yesterday’s lows, if not also in positive territory and then holding above yesterday’s lows. Trying, and failing, could prove even more bearish than not trying at all. And not holding the retest of Monday’s lows would threaten to expose an air pocket not much further below.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2711.50 would at least be likelier to trigger the 2713.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2706.00 would be likely also not to recover the 2707.50 bias-down target which would then renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2720.25 | 2723.00 |
| …would target | 2727.50 | 2730.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2709.75 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2704.75 | 2707.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday morning’s 2719.00 bias-down signal had held its test as support, with the help of invoking the grace period. No-bias triggered late, but compensated for the delay and surged to 2734.00 as the morning bias environment lapsed. 
Probing above its 2725.25 bias-up signal was no-bias trending and required being retraced.
The narrow noon hour’s range resolved down into the afternoon bias environment. Coming to within 3 ticks of 2725.25 qualified for neutralizing its attraction. Just in time for price to begin firming through a 2730.75 buy signal ahead of FOMC.
A knee-jerk reaction up to 2744.00 was reversed down almost as quickly to 2724.25. That’s 12 points up and 20 points down within 5 minutes or less. As expected, the recent ranging was only storing energy for an extremely volatile reaction.
There’s more? A lot more.
Also as expected, the new Fed chair’s first Q&A relived the volatility of his predecessor’s early days. A 30-point drop was underway into his appearance, and ended within 1 tick of the morning’s 2712.25 bias-down target. Its natural support and oversold RSIs produced a 21-point bounce, and still had time for a 19-point drop to 2714.25 into the close.
Oversold RSIs at the 2712.75 low still require a retest. Tuesday morning’s “unfinished business below” at 2710.25 is outstanding, too. Isolating their tests to the overnight could launch a multi-session recovery of the pullback from last week’s highs. Failing to hold their tests would suggest this is not a pullback.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday was already retraced before Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 1.2235 close. Perhaps neutralizing its attraction enabled the favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Surging to 1.2405 also tested the 1.2390 bounce limit, which held to continue suggesting the downside momentum remains intact. Closing above 1.2410 would suggest otherwise.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Stopping short of the actual 1305.00 low had bounced Tuesday, and firmed further Wednesday ahead of the FOMC policy statement, then extended even higher. The original 1325.50 sell signal was tested as resistance, and must be rejected without further delay to reinstate the downside momentum.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce from fresh lows had not recovered relevant resistance, but Wednesday’s open gapped up and reacted favorably to the FOMC policy statement. Closing at or around 16.40 almost invalidates the downside momentum, which can be reinstated easily Thursday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
the knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement spiked up to 144-04 before collapsing to support at 143-04 down to 143-00. Closing under 143-16 would target 142-00, tentatively, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Thursday. Otherwise, recovering 144-04 Thursday would resume the rally.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher Wednesday to test 64.05 confirms Tuesday’s breakout close, next targeting 65.00 so long as 62.70 now holds as support.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday to test 2.73 was reversed back down to Monday’s lows under 2.66, and still presumably on the way down to 2.62 or lower.