S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday night’s drop extended to fresh lows just in time to shut the door on a path higher for the open, the Isolation setup. Another path higher was formed by the open blipping down further only momentarily, but its reversal attempt failed. That door was shut, too.
One more path higher has opened by fulfilling the next lower objectives at the three-week old 2652.00 low. A late collapse probed them down to 2642.00, then bounced to 2652.00 before the close. Probing it down to 2627.00-2628.00 and recovering — overnight to form an Isolation setup, or intraday to get squeezed into the weekend — would be the basis. Either setup is entirely possible and yet not often formed.
Closing under 2652.00 again Friday would confirm the next lower objective in-play, a retest of the crash’s lows at 2509-2511.00. Support along the way would likely be only temporary. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, almost literally, make or break.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding Wednesday’s bounce at the 1.2390-1.2410 bounce limit didn’t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.2465. But that excess had disappeared by Thursday’s open, which extended back down intraday to 1.2365. Closing any lower would confirm the corrective bounce had ended, so long as 1.2390-1.2410 continues to hold as resistance.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Rallying ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news and extending sharply higher after it as nonetheless retraced to test 1325.50 at Thursday’s low. At least closing back under it was needed to reinstate the downside momentum. Now closing back under 1319.00 is the nearest signal.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing sharply higher into and out of and after Wednesday’s FOM events was retraced back down Thursday to test 16.40 down to 16.33. Just closing under 16.55 prevents launching a new upleg, and allows another close under 16.40 to resume the decline.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ending Wednesday’s volatility at 143-16 continued to prevent sellers from gaining traction for their third consecutive daily effort. Gapping up more than 1 point Thursday through Monday’s 144-20 close was the consequence. It extended to probe last week’s 145-06 highs intraday, but the resistance held. Its reaction down to “lower prior highs” at 144-22 also held. Closing beyond either end of that range is likely to extend in that direction.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Confirming Tuesday’s breakout Wednesday now requires at least an eventual third higher close. Meanwhile, testing 65.00 created potential for reacting down. The 64.25 pullback limit was tested, with room down to 62.70 before undermining the near-term likelihood of resuming the rally to 66.85.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reversal extended down slightly deeper Thursday. The behavior can’t yet be considered “ineffectual optimism” for approaching its 2.62 target with such a slow pace, but it doesn’t contradict the ongoing likelihood for breaking through it by at least a dime.
Mid-day Update… This one has a chance.
Afternoon bounce, potential recovery.
This morning’s drop ultimately extended down to 2663.25. Oversold RSIs there will require its eventual retest. But that might be awhile.
The noon hour bounced 24 points up to 2687.25. Which was actually the second and maximum target of a corrective bounce. Its reaction down to 2671.25 suggested the correction was done, 
and that new lows at 2652.00-2653.00 remained in-play.
More so, tests of both bias-up parameters were on the verge of being rejected. Just rejecting a bias signal to trigger no-bias requires an offsetting test, but that’s a morning setup only. In the afternoon, rejecting tests of both bias parameters still requires offsetting tests of the other two.
But oh, no.
Bias-up triggered late to avoid the bias setup. And it wasn’t just recovered. The noon hour peak of its original test was recovered through 1:30 to mitigate the signal’s lateness. That was 11 points higher, and could prove to be very effectual optimism.
Currently, 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively on a test and retest of 2691.25. Back under 2680.00-2681.00 — preferably upon exiting the bias environment — would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, there’s potential for fresh session highs today. Closing above or below 2701.50 would then dictate the next leg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. Also, any noticeable reaction to either pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2674.00 | 2676.00 |
| …would target | 2679.00 | 2681.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2664.00 | 2666.00 |
| …would target | 2657.00 | 2659.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.