S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s Fed surveys has a track record for influencing price action, although they’re high-profile — all the more for being the session’s only econ reports.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2638.00 | 2639.00 |
| …would target | 2645.00 | 2646.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2626.00 | 2627.00 |
| …would target | 2619.00 | 2620.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Can it hold up?
Isolation setup stakes its ground.
The 2644.00 overnight high had been reversed out of Europe’s opens to retest 2627.00. Retracing 61.8% of the drop suddenly surged to attack 2651.00. Its retest was accompanied by RSIs diverging negatively, triggering a reaction down to test 2642.00.
A very important level.
The attempt to recover yesterday’s range was underway. Rallying into and out of the open attacked 2659.00. It was retraced entirely to retest 2642.00, but only to 2644.00 during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
The isolation setup had formed. Also, the 2640.75 bias-down signal held its post-open test, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2659.75 bias-up signal. Which has been attacked to within 1 point.
Price action has since ranged between 2642.00–2655.00. The isolation setup’s reward usually isn’t obvious during the morning. But a probe into negative territory must be quickly rejected. Extending to fresh highs remains likely, as does rallying this afternoon, so long as 2639.75 holds as support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Almost literally: make, or break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s drop had already probed fresh lows for the week, which hadn’t happened the two prior sessions. Thursday’s open gapped down 27-30 points to probe under Monday’s 2698.00-2699.00 lows. A post-open bounce finally ended upon touching Monday’s low. and the balance of the morning trended down to 2664.00. Another bounce to 2690.00 also resolved down to 2643.00-2644.00. That met the next lower objective under 2680.00 at 2652.00. Closing under it put into play its next lower objective at 2627.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Trying both to resume the drop, and to reverse it, and failing at both. Thursday’s drop extended without delay to fulfill its next objective down to 2626.00. Consolidating eventually broke lower and quickly touched 2617.00, but it was recovered almost as quickly as it had formed. This time, consolidating again around 2626.00 reversed up sharply into Europe’s opens and touched Thursday’s late 2643.00-2644.00 lows. It also reversed back to 2626.00. Now another bounce is testing 2639.00.
If, then…
Several important points about price action since yesterday’s close. First, it has met the next lower objective. Second, it is in proximity to yesterday’s range. Third, it has developed exclusively under yesterday’s lows. The first two points allow an Isolation setup to form, by opening back above yesterday’s lows and avoiding negative territory through the open. The third point must be invalidated first, by probing back into yesterday’s range well before the open. An alternative recovery path would continue being governed by pessimism and retest the overnight low, but maintain or re-establish the range when the bias environment had lapsed. Friday Factors could squeeze shorts into the weekend. Nevertheless, dangers loom. Isolation setups can be as bearish as they would have been bullish, if they fail to hold within the prior day’s range. And Friday Factors can cut either way, so buyers can become increasingly inhibited the longer a recovery is delayed. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, almost literally, make or break. Closing under 2652.00 again Friday would confirm the next lower objective in-play, a retest of the crash’s lows at 2509-2511.00. Support along the way would be influential, but likely only temporary.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2639.75 would be likely to trigger the 2640.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2652.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2658.50 | 2659.75 |
| …would target | 2666.50 | 2667.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2639.75 | 2640.75 |
| …would target | 2627.75 | 2629.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.