S&P
Mid-day Update… It got worse.
Back to testing an overly-tested support.
The next lower objective for this morning’s renewed bias-down signal was 2726.00-2727.00. It was met easily soon after the bias timing window triggered at 10:15. 
And it was being tested as resistance as the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. That’s not counter-trend sponsorship timing.
The next lower objectives at 2711.50 and 2706.00 were tested during the noon hour, and as the noon hour was lapsing. The actual afternoon bias-down signal is 2707.00, and it was being attacked by a bounce into the 1:20 bias timing window. Also not counter-trend sponsorship timing.
The renewed bias-down target is 2701.50. There’s no bullish reason to revisit 2701.50, unless its test can be isolated. Like to the cusp between timing windows, which it was.
Now its reaction is testing 2710.00. Back under 2705.00 would suggest the drop is resuming, next targeting the 2690.00 area. The alternative doesn’t necessarily rally, but could seem like a rally simply by bouncing 20 points to the prior objective.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This is the slowest Tuesday calendar I’ve seen in years, with only one econ report scheduled, and it’s neither high-profile nor reliable for influencing price action.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2717.75 | 2722.00 |
| …would target | 2724.75 | 2728.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2709.00 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2702.75 | 2707.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias delayed is NOT bias denied.
Making up for 2-1/2 days without trending.
Recovering into the open had tested and retested 2745.00. Post-open action was all about resuming the decline. 
Having formed a Rising Wedge off of the 2733.00 overnight low, retracing it entirely during the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 could have ended selling pressure. Not even attacking 2373.00 during the open would have allowed a bottom to form at 2735.00.
The open didn’t quite get to 2733.00, and a later test of 2735.00 didn’t quite hold. Rejecting the relentless overnight selling wasn’t likely. Already, the next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 is being tested.
Oversold RSIs at the low will require its retest if a bounce were to develop before RSIs could leave oversold territory. There’s no requirement to drop any further today, but that’s the vulnerability until a bottoming pattern were to form, or unless the noon hour is entered or exited above at least 2735.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Starting on a down note.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
No WedEX had triggered ahead of Friday’s expiration so no bias was detected. But there was plenty of ranging. The open was greeted at 2756.00, having bounced overnight from retesting the 2745.00 area to attack 2761.00. Extending higher throughout the morning bias environment reached 2766.00, the session high. Trending back down throughout the afternoon bias environment tested 2754.00, the session low. The balance of the session retraced the high-to-low by 61.8% up to 2762.00. Recovering 2758.00 through the close could have been bullish, but the final 2 minutes plunged 9 points to 2753.00. Its reaction only touched 2758.00, as if to rub it in.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night has been under pressure since the open. Dipping immediately to 2751.00 was retraced to 2756.00, which is still resistance from Friday’s open. The drop soon extended, dipping quickly to 2746.00. Hovering optimistically short of the already tested and retested 2745.00 area, for awhile, eventually extended. Seven hours of narrow ranging finally broke lower. A last-gasp up to what is this morning’s 2750.00 bias-down signal was reversed down sharply to 2733.00 in 30 minutes. Its 61.8% retracement up to 2743.50 is now hovering above what is this morning’s 2740.00 bias-down target.
If, then…
The 2-1/2 days since Wednesday afternoon had been contained within a range. Probes of fresh lows were retraced. That is accumulative behavior, but not quite an accumulative pattern without a trigger. An intraday drop could have tested “lower prior highs” in the 2735.00 area and still been capable of recovering, perhaps even to trigger a reversal. Recovering an overnight drop under the range is substantially more difficult. There’s more time to get it done, but that also means a pessimistic tone will have been established early. That said, trending relentlessly overnight — especially into Monday’s open — can be reversed credibly, if immediately. And that’s still possible, not because there’s still time to get it done, but because that’s the potential of testing “lower prior highs.” Also, lacking WedEX bias could help attract price back into riday’s range. Otherwise, exiting the open without either trending up, or expending the last bit of selling pressure, would be vulnerable to retesting overnight lows, at least.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2745.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2735.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2740.00 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal.