S&P
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
Late rally extends through the noon hour.
Potential for a Dry Cleaners morning had been narrowly avoided, but that didn’t require trending at all. Trending also wasn’t required after only attacking the 2674.00 bias-down signal before triggering no-bias. 
But trending developed anyway, and it extended to the 2699.00 bias-up signal.
Optimism wasn’t restrained, but it was corrected in time to avoid “no-bias trending.” Extending higher through the noon hour up to 2721.25 has triggered this afternoon’s 2715.75 bias-up signal. The afternoon’s 2726.00 bias-up target is in-play — essentially the 2725.25-2727.75 area.
During this weekend’s Saturday Review we discussed this being the target area of a possible corrective bounce. But only a corrective bounce. Closing any higher would suggest something much bigger underway. That’s still unlikely to develop from Friday’s bottom that developed so close and so near to Tue-Thu three consecutive downtrending sessions.
The bias signal has yet to be any more productive after 1:20 than before. So, it can still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under its 2703.00 bias-down signal. As was the case on Friday, there is no time limit or time restraint to a break lower from probing Friday’s lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ calendar has no reliably influential reports. The morning’s Fed speaker might set the tone, at least the price reaction can. Things get busier Wednesday as the monthly Employment Situation report grows nearer.
*William Dudley Speaks
7:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2716.25 | 2715.75 |
| …would target | 2727.25 | 2726.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2703.75 | 2703.00 |
| …would target | 2691.75 | 2691.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Maybe an errand, or two.
“Dry Cleaners morning” signal avoided, by a narrowing range anyway.
Generally, when the same relevant price is overlapped by any 3 of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints, then the bias environment tends not to trend. 
More so, its fluctuations are directionless, and frustrating.
This morning’s first hour established two relevant levels at 2676.00 and 2681.00. Each was overlapped twice at two separate 15-minute checkpoints. The 10:30 bar had bounced from testing 2676.00 to probe only slightly above 2681.00. Although a Dry Cleaners morning isn’t actually signaled, trending attempts beyond the open’s range will be difficult to extend this morning.
Trending would be difficult anyway, since all but one of the first hour’s swings was contained within the open’s 2676.00-2684.50 surge. And neither bias signal was touched after the open — the 2674.00 bias-down signal was touched 2 minutes before the open — so no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required.
But breaking higher, which is now being attempted above 2683.50, could be attracted to filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2690.00 close, which would likely hold. Probing it has room anyway up to the 2699.00 bias-up signal, which would likely hold, but also likely reverse down sharply.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hiding its hand.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s fresh low was likely for having trended down through each of the three prior sessions. Friday’s potential for trending down into the weekend was likely for similar reasons, and for being a Friday when the weekend’s impending illiquidity can exacerbate sentiment. The early bearish sentiment was contained to testing its 2652.00 bias-down target by 5 points. But the contrary sentiment was limited to returning to unchanged around 2677.00 by noon, and ranging there choppily until exiting the proxy window at 3:20. Surging 25 points to test 2695.00 into the close did not recover any relevant level to reverse the trend up, and its catalyst seemed only to be earlier shorts covering ahead of the weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down quickly touched 2677.00 and a couple of points lower, confirming that Friday’s late surge wasn’t necessarily bullish. Bouncing nearly filled the gap back to Friday’s 2690.00 close before reversing into a slide that eventually tested 2664.00. The slide not only ended at Europe’s opens, but also began reversing back up, briefly probing Friday’s close to almost 2692.00. the past hour has drifted back down 13 points.
If, then…
Immediately retracing Friday’s late surge last night does help to prove it wasn’t bullish. But having retraced it, resuming the recovery can suggest new sponsorship has arrived, after all. Resuming the rally by triggering bias-up, preferably by already exceeding Friday’s late high through the open. Rejecting a probe above Friday’s late high through the open would keep the door wide open to trending back down today.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2685.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2674.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 — at least, not without first touching the 2699.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2685.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2699.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.