S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2757.75 | 2757.00 |
| …would target | 2767.00 | 2766.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2738.50 | 2738.00 |
| …would target | 2727.25 | 2726.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday Factors didn’t influence the open’s gap up to 2718.00, not to extend higher or to reverse down. The morning eventually recovered to exit the bias environment above its 2721.00 bias-up target. It had held a test when exceeding it would have renewed the bias-up signal, so exceeding it later at least kept alive upside potential. It was extended to 2729.75.
That was the afternoon’s bias-up signal. Its reaction down attacked 2721.00 into the afternoon bias environment. The bias environment recovered back up to its 2729.75 bias-up signal. And then Friday Factors reappeared.
Trending ahead of the bias environment exit formed a setup that would be completed by trending during the bias environment exit. And that trending was up, defining the balance of the session. Closing less than 90 minutes later was almost 20 points higher attacking 2750.00. Being above Thursday’s high essentially confirms the Isolation setup is intact, and that a retest of the prior Friday’s 2755.00 high is in-play.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- I’LL SEND LINKS TO THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW IN THE MORNING, WELL BEFORE ITS 9:30 AM ET START TIME.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s early blip-up above 1.2320 never extended higher intraday. Friday’s open blipped-back down but never extended down. The burden of proof is on buyers, so the pattern is more vulnerable to extending down further.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Little movement intraday Friday is not helpful in trying to reject Wednesday’s dip. Closing back above 1335.00 would still be credible for launching a recovery, but it is no more likely.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing into Friday’s open stopped short of triggering a recovery, which keeps the pattern in the vicinity of its 16.50 sell signal whose trigger would target a retest of prior lows.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce extended higher overnight and into Friday afternoon to 144-05, still leaving “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to Wednesday’s 142-20 close. Back under 143-12 would signal the bounce had ended.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher again Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout from the recent range, putting into play at least an eventual third higher close, and probably also a test of 67.05. Pullbacks meanwhile should be limited to testing 61.35, although there isn’t any bullish reason for any more backing-and-filling before extending higher.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still hovering flat-to-lower into the weekend avoided closing the week at a new low close, but also avoided the bullish setup of recovering from probing fresh lows intraday — and at least probing fresh lows intraday remains very likely, if not also required before a recovery would be credible.
Mid-day Update… Hovering, not rallying.
Probing above resistance.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: All of Monday’s econ reports are high-profile, but none have a track record for influencing price action. The pre-open Fed speaker does have such a track record, and the reaction to any comments would be more likely to be duplicated in reaction to the reports.
*James Bullard Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET