S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight drift, and Bitcoin.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s widening swings around 2737.50 had greeted Friday’s expiration open on a downswing to 2722.25. One more upswing persisted into the noon hour and extended up to 2754.75, fulfilling the rally’s next 2753.00-2757.00 objective. Yet another downswing fell to 2726.00 and the balance of Friday afternoon narrowed its range around 2737.50. This enabled the afternoon’s bullish WedEX to be considered only nominally influential, if dismissing the final 3 minutes.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night initially firmed to attack 2748.00. Reversing down extended through the night and into Monday’s holiday morning to 2719.50 before recovering to 2733.00 into the early close. Firming another 2 points into last night’s open briefly tested 2735.00 before returning back into a range contained above Monday morning’s lows. A downleg underway into Europe’s opens has broken to fresh lows at 2709.00, now consolidating in a wide range back up to yesterday morning’s 2719.50 low… Bitcoin meanwhile has all but ignored my 10,225-10,500 target for launching a corrective downleg. The area held initially, but was exceeded by $1,000. Its reaction down used my target area as support to consolidate the pullback, which has resolved up to fresh highs testing 11,600.
If, then…
The open is indicated to gap down. WedEX influences regular trading hours behavior, so gapping down is irrelevant. Friday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t trend down, and it ultimately absorbed dips. This behavior barely qualifies as remaining vulnerable to rallying sharply at the next regular open. But it qualifies. That said, even the most obvious influence on Friday still would require evidence coming out of Monday’s open. Initial strength would get every benefit of the doubt for extending through the morning. Otherwise, the morning would be free to trend down with potential to 2701.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2717.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2722.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2725.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2729.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week doesn’t rush back into things, at least judging by Tuesday’s empty econ calendar. Things do get busier and more varied, as more is packed into the week’s last three sessions.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2744.75 | 2744.50 |
| …would target | 2751.00 | 2751.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2729.75 | 2729.75 |
| …would target | 2722.25 | 2722.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s closing surge extended through the close and into the Globex open up to 2737.50. Fluctuating narrowly down to 2733.50 became the midpoint of widening swings into Friday’s open, 
up to 2746.75 down to 2722.25. And then out of the open up to 2754.75 down to 2726.00. Even Friday afternoon’s narrowing range still centered around 2737.50.
In fact, that’s where Friday afternoon’s bias environment was entered. Despite probing lower in the interim, that’s also where the session closed… sort of. That was the print 3 minutes before the cash session close, which matters most, but doesn’t account for a momentary 6 point dip under it at the close.
The point being that Friday afternoon’s bias environment didn’t trend down, and it absorbed dips. This behavior barely qualifies as remaining vulnerable to rallying sharply at the next regular open. Whether or not that next open is flat or gapping — up, or down — is unknown. But initial strength would get a benefit of the doubt for extending through the morning.
Meanwhile, the 2753.00-2757.00 objective was probed. Not entirely, but that’s not necessarily to consider it met, and not requiring retest. No higher objective is in-play without closing above 2757.00.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- NO Saturday Review this holiday weekend.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday extended to the 1.2435 sell signal but was still overlapping it through the afternoon. Back above 1.2465 would suggest the sell signal’s test had held so that the gap back up to 1.2530 could be filled next.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight attacked the 1366.00 gap up to 1364.40 but dipped back down to spend the day withing Thursday’s range. Post-close selling attacked 1347.00 support, which must hold to keep alive the upside momentum.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s ranging still did not recover 16.80 resistance, and post-close action dipped to Thursday’s 16.60 low. Any lower Monday could attack recent lows.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Restrained optimism through Thursday’s close left no excuse to delay triggering the 144-12 buy signal. It was probed Friday morning but the afternoon mostly fluctuated around it narrowly. Probing above 145-00 would be credible for triggering the signal.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher Thursday night still did not reject the 61.50 bounce limit’s test, which was still being overlapped through Friday afternoon. Back under 59.80 would resume the decline next targeting 57.20.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating narrowly around 2.56 support Friday instead of finally rejecting it suggests that it will be probed, undermining any early strength that might develop Monday.