S&P
Mid-day Update… You ask for a miracle?
Russia news stretches the rubber band.
Rallying through the morning entered the noon hour at the afternoon’s 2748.00 bias-up signal. Probing it during the noon hour attacked 2755.00, sufficiently fulfilling the 2753.00-2757.00 objective and not requiring its retest.
All of that before the bullish WedEX could begin influencing the afternoon. Tough act to follow.
Then came headlines of election meddling indictments, triggering a 25-point drop to 2730.00. It had become too late to trigger the 2732.50 bias-down signal (so, also too late to invert the bullish WedEX). The bias signal’s support coincided with additional statements that significantly undermined the decline’s catalyst. The resulting bounce is testing 2744.50.
It’s possible that the drop cleared the decks of potential selling pressure becoming pent-up during the earlier rally. This makes it easier for the afternoon to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. That said, it’s now the only upside catalyst, having fulfilled enough of the 2753-2757 objective and failing to trigger bias-up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. markets are closed for the President’s Day holiday, which also recognizes George Washington’s birthday on the 22nd. Globex opens normally Sunday and Monday evenings at 6:00 ET, but closes early in the interim Monday.
Globex regular open
Sunday 6:00 PM ET
Globex early close
1:00 PM ET
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2748.25 | 2748.00 |
| …would target | 2756.75 | 2756.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2732.50 | 2732.50 |
| …would target | 2720.00 | 2719.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Rescued from under the ice.
Another dip recovered.
The 2740.50 bias-up target was probed overnight by more than 6 points. But its reaction down touched 2722.25 before the open. Rallying through the open tested 2735.50, and 
retested it after quickly dipping 8 points and just as quickly recovering.
Probing under the 2733.50 earlier overnight low was recovered in time to be still be tested as the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed. It wasn’t rejected decisively, and not for lack of trying. Neither was it recovered decisively. But the few times this setup does appear it tends to be absorbed, and resolve as bullishly as it would have been bearish.
The next reaction fell 10 points to test and retest 2725.75. But that didn’t prevent another bounce from touching the 2732.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. It triggered at 10:30, helpfully also probing the pre-10:15 high.
The 2740.50 bias-up target is already met, being probed by at least 1 point. It is resistance, but this is still a bias-up environment which can extend. This being Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And this being expiration, morning setups tend to influence the session.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Floating above thin ice.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The past week has been marked with some meaningful recoveries. They began last Friday afternoon when the morning’s 60-point plunge rallied 110 points. They include Wednesday’s 49-point pre-open CPI-plunge that was retraced during the first hour and reversed up 70 points. Their last instance was Thursday morning’s 29-point drop which then rallied 55 points. The last one began from gapping up, so buyers have grown less patient. Two consecutive afternoons have rallied when they could have afforded to refuel the rally by backing-and-filling, also reflecting less patient buyers. Meanwhile, a second consecutive higher close above 2684.00 makes 2753.00-2757.00 even likelier.
Overnight action’s new info…
The rally has extended higher overnight in two distinct legs. Their reactions suggest a third upleg is needed soon to avoid reversing down. Thursday’s late surge firmed 6 points into and out of the 2732.00 cash session close to attack 2738.00. Then price action narrowed to a 6-tick (ticks, not points) range for several hours. A momentary surge after midnight reacted down to pierce the earlier overnight high down to 2732.50 — keep an eye on that level. A more considered extension to fresh highs attacked 2647.00 and also reacted down, attacking 2736.00. So far, still hovering back above yesterday’s highs.
If, then…
Call it a domino effect. Wednesday’s close above 2684.00 and Thursday’s close above 2698.00-2700.00 have put into play the next higher objective at 2753.00-2757.00. The higher objective seems to be intact and even in-play for today with overnight action trending up and this afternoon becomes yet to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. But be aware that a session-long signal can still invert the WedEX influence. I wouldn’t bother addressing that this morning, if not for overnight action having pierced the earlier Globex low (described above). Exiting the open under it would form the same sell signal that had triggered at the Jan 29 top to point lower through the following morning. At least that instance could have been contained to that morning, but today’s expiration is usually a session-long influence. Otherwise, the bullish WedEX influence could still be greeted lower if those dominoes that point higher test 2753.00-2757.00 early, which could quickly become more like a house of cards.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2744.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2740.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2738.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2732.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2726.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.