S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not going gently.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Already probing fresh lows Sunday night, Monday’s session developed overwhelmingly in negative territory. The overnight attacks on 2790.00 were repeated Monday morning and and Monday afternoon. Between overnight and intraday dips, 2-3 drops and recoveries represent 2-3 accumulative efforts. None of which ended above a relevant resistance, holding tests of Sunday night’s 2813.00 open in the morning, and the last 60-90 minutes bouncing to test Friday’s 2806.00 close. The last bounce was the consequence of no-bias trending that expended maximum selling pressure without gaining traction for the effort. The reaction up rescued the session from collapsing to fresh lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late bounce extended higher almost uninterrupted to retest Monday morning’s highs, coming within 1 tick of this morning’s 2817.25 bias-up target by midnight. Reacting back down tested and retested 2809.50 before and after Europe’s opens. The last reaction up has now extended to fresh highs at 2822.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Gapping up Tuesday above relevant resistance like 2819.50 (being probed now up to 2822.50) could serve by proxy to trigger the recovery that Monday morning had twice attempted. Now having closed twice under the 2813.00-2819.50 prior lows, bouncing back above it wouldn’t damage the decline’s chart. Even then, recovering above 2830.75 would be a challenge. Whether testing higher resistance first, or just resuming the decline, the pattern remains likely to resolve down, and to extend. A bearish morning (and then day) is still possible, but requires reversing down soon to at least avoid triggering bias-up.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2819.50 would be likely to exceed the 2817.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2813.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2811.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2806.00 | 2811.50 |
| …would target | 2811.75 | 2817.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2795.00 | 2800.50 |
| …would target | 2787.75 | 2793.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
At least two recovery efforts failed Monday. The post-open collapse back down to the 2791.25 overnight low had recovered to the open’s 2813.50 high, before reversing back down to test 2791.25. Any lower could have extended the decline. 
The afternoon’s no-bias trending expended all available selling pressure to only touch its 2791.25 bias-down target, and it retraced the noon hour’s 2802.50 high,which held as resistance.
The choppy, sloppy afternoon was separated by two dips to 2791.25. Returning to their origins makes the dips accumulative. Closing above the dips’ origins would have made them strong-handed accumulation. But the recoveries stopped short.
Gapping up Tuesday above relevant resistance like 2819.50 could serve by proxy for the recovery that Monday didn’t produce. Even then, recovering 2830.75 would be a challenge. Whether testing higher resistance first, or just resuming the decline, the pattern remains likely to resolve down, and to extend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having entrenched the downside by confirming Thursday’s breakout under 1.1465, Monday exploited the opportunity for a corrective bounce. The decline should resume by Tuesday’s close.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s fresh highs suggest again that the rally has resumed, albeit once again needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up hovered at last week’s highs, not quite qualifying as a breakout, but still likely to extend higher intraday in case of any early strength Tuesday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for a pullback down to 147-25 wasn’t even attacked before Monday recovered to probe fresh highs. Closing above 149-04 fulfills the minimum requirement of last week’s confirmed breakout, and requires holding 149-00 support to maintain the upside momentum.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Uptrending support that had coincided with Friday’s 58.25 low was retested Monday, and held. If the pullback limit has held, then Tuesday should hardly delay extending higher to greet Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Otherwise, closing under 58.25 would greet EIA from a position of weakness.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down under Friday’s 2.72 low was retested intraday. The retest held, and launched a bounce that filled the gap up to Friday’s 2.75 close. Closing beyond either end of the 2.71-2.75 range Wednesday — which allows two days to get either done — would be likely to extend in that direction.
Mid-day Update… Sloppy and choppy pause from toppy and droppy.
Buyers missed a path higher.
The post-open surge testing 2813.00 had collapsed back down to the 2790.25 overnight low. All of which was recovered into the morning bias environment lapsing. And then no more. Any higher for any longer could have isolated the morning’s probe of fresh lows, and opened the door to an afternoon short-squeeze.
Trending back down through the noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment has retraced the morning’s rally to almost 3 points from its 2790.25 lows. That’s 5 points under this afternoon’s 2798.75 bias-down signal, which did not trigger.
So, this is no-bias trending that requires a retracement to 2798.75, perhaps also the 2803.00 1:20 print. Then what I’ve been calling a “sloppy and choppy” afternoon will be able to resume its “toppy and droppy” downside. Resolving down prematurely would still get every benefit of the doubt for being able to extend down anyway, with only a recovery above 2804.00 suggesting a rally into the close.