S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 26, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three housing sector reports on Tuesday increase the opportunity for an outlier or other contradiction to send confusing signals to the market. Any obvious reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report, although only one also has a reliable track record for influencing price action.
Patrick Harker Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2806.00 | 2811.50 |
| …would target | 2812.00 | 2817.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2793.25 | 2798.75 |
| …would target | 2795.75 | 2791.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Round-one is done.
Gap down recovery is rejected.
The 2790.25 overnight low had been retraced up to 2810.25 before the open.
Flat-to-lower ranging greeted the open at 2802.00 where a blip-down to 2799.00 snapped back up to test the 2813.00 Globex opening print. It held.
The 2813.00 Globex opening print not only held, but it snapped back down to 2799.00, and then through it to touch the 2790.25 overnight low. No lower.
Back above 2798.25 has triggered a bounce whose 2709.00-area target is met. Fluctuating choppily around it is threatening to become something much more substantial than only a temporary bounce:
Coming out of the bias environment back in positive territory would form a sort of Isolation setup. Accumulative, exactly as last week’s failed rallies were distributive. Like any setup, fully forming without triggering — in this case, reversing down again after only recovering — could be as bearish as the reversal would have been bullish.
The bounce is testing its 2811.50 inflection point, and retesting resistance at the 2813.00 Globex opening print. Back under 2805.00 would signal that buyers failed, possibly also marginalizing them for the day. But extending higher into the noon hour would more likely target 2830.75.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Making the effort.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s complete retracement of Thursday’s rally was the resumption of distribution that I began identifying on Monday. Its chart is copied below. Thursday afternoon did not confirm its breakout, because the session’s rise to 2866.00 from a pre-open dip to 2813.75 was only a function of having dumped ballast Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Gapping down Friday could have been limited to backing-and-filling ahead of another rally effort into the close or Monday. But its 2830.75 pullback objective resolved down as the morning’s bias environment lapsed. The noon hour’s fresh lows at 2806.50 reacted up 22 points, only for the final hour to retrace it all (yet another failed intraday rally). No “unfinished business” remains above. And Friday’s close was under the prior multi-session consolidation (circled red below), starting to signal the trend reversing down.
Overnight action’s new info…
The weekend’s so-called Russiagate report is favorable to Trump, so an overnight rally was likely. It amounted to gapping up back to 2813.00, and immediately extending 5-1/2 points. That was retraced as quickly almost entirely, and then the decline resumed by collapsing to 2792.00. Ranging sideways up to 2801.00 probed lower through Europe’s opens to attack 2790.00. But only momentarily, as a snap up has extended back above Friday’s lows to test 2810.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s rally could have proved itself by a second consecutive higher close above the week’s range, which it did not. Similarly, now breaking under the week’s range must prove itself by closing lower again on Monday. Of course, it always seems darkest before the dawn. And, more on point, bull markets have a way of stepping right up to the brink, and then reversing. The alternative to falling into this precipice — the most glaring and pronounced precipice since long before the ongoing Christmas rally — avoiding this precipice would suggest resuming the rally to much higher highs. The “dawn” could be an Isolation setup that leaves behind the overnight probe, holding above Friday’s 2805.00-2806.50 lows. The setup is forming now. Meanwhile, Friday’s lows are also resistance, and rejecting an Isolation setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2812.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2815.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2806.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2800.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Quick note about today’s news, and last week’s pattern…
Last week we tracked a growing pattern of intraday distribution. It culminated in the two-day rally and failure that took price sharply lower into the weekend. It is the most glaring re-positioning among strong hands that I’ve seen in some time.
Meanwhile, Mueller has delivered his “Russia-gate” report, and it’s apparently not the damning conclusion so widely anticipated for so long. Some sort of relief rally tonight is likely.
Could fear of the worst have been responsible for last week’s distribution? An entire week of big money, strong-handed selling into strength? I’m doubtful. That’s not the pattern that I see, but it has a stop — two consecutive closes above last week’s highs, at the latest. Otherwise, retesting last week’s highs or only attacking them would have no effect on the distributive pattern. The distributive pattern should have an effect on any rally.
Monitor Globex price action in the chaRTroom, opening at 6:00pm ET. Note that the link is changed, and also that Adobe has planned maintenance that will make it unavailable for a period overnight… ENTER THE CHARTROOM HERE.