S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2652.25 | 2650.50 |
| …would target | 2662.25 | 2660.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2641.25 | 2639.75 |
| …would target | 2634.75 | 2633.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stuck.
Overnight pullback neither expending nor recovering.
The opening minute quickly touched the 2636.25 pre-open/overnight low, then bounced to the 2645.50 bias-down signal. This characterization of the open almost serves to define the rest of post-open price action. 
The 2637.50 bias-down target held repeated tests and attacks as support, while the 2645.50 bias-down signal also held repeated tests as resistance.
The picture didn’t get any clearer. Still testing the bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 10:15 invoked the grace period through 10:30, which was still overlapping the bias-down signal. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-down targeting a retest of its 2637.50, and not no-bias targeting tests of the bias-up parameters. The bias parameters are still influential as support and resistance, but there tests don’t require a specific resolution.
Meanwhile, the grace period did probe a fresh post-open high up to 2650.25. Yet, that was retraced in time to avoid recovering the 2645.50 bias-down signal. The setup would have been pretty bullish, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. Not exploiting the setup in-time to trigger tends to be as bearish as it could have been bullish. That started to develop with a reaction down to 2640.00, but now fresh highs are being probed up to 2652.75.
noN-bias is unpredictable, other than identifying its support and resistance. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above or below its 2645.50 bias-down signal could offer more reliability for the next leg. But what we do know at this stage is that weak-handed buyers are still stretching the rubber band, probably gaining no traction for their effort.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Raining cats, not yet dogs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s rally off of its 2630.00 low resumed Sunday night, albeit shallower. But it unfolded in two segments that hesitated at 2637.50 and 2655.00, which are 38.2% and 61.8% extensions of the relevant segments of Friday afternoon’s rally — so, presumably the same sponsorship. A post-open 30-point pullback stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 2618.25 close. Those optimists were sorely missed just when they were needed most, to maintain the afternoon probe of fresh highs up to 2671.50. The closing dip to 2645.75 probed back under the morning’s 2654.25 high, missing a final opportunity for the intraday rally to gain traction for its efforts. Which continues to suggest the bounce is only a temporary correction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Where Sunday night’s open immediately retraced Friday’s late reaction down from fresh session highs, yesterday’s late reaction down has extended lower overnight. Not for lack of trying — a bounce up to 2659.25 soon reversed back down, extending to 2636.25 out of Europe’s opens and consolidating up to 2644.00 for several hours. That ranging just broke higher, now touching 2648.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s expenditure of buying pressure failed to close above relevant resistance, which continues to suggest the bounce is only a temporary correction. A proverbial “dead cat bounce.” The overnight dip isn’t yet deep enough to prove it isn’t just correcting yesterday’s rally. Anyway, a lower open would still require being maintained through the open to influence intraday action. Meanwhile, absorbing a weaker open could be rewarded by retesting yesterday’s highs up to 2673.75.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2650.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2645.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2667.25 | 2665.50 |
| …would target | 2675.50 | 2673.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2647.25 | 2645.50 |
| …would target | 2639.25 | 2637.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s initial recovery back up to Friday’s 2637.50 high was eventually exceeded by a surge to 2655.00. These are 38.2% and 61.8% extensions of the relevant segments of Friday afternoon’s rally. And their influence continued to suggest the bounce was only a temporary correction.
Reacting down sharply Monday morning from attacking 2655.00 to 2620.00 further suggested that sponsorship was waning. But bias-up held, so the reversal recovered. Its recovery probed fresh session highs, repeatedly. Each time reversing back down to 2655.00 or its current proxy.
Sponsorship still waning. But obviously not prohibitive of probing higher. Ultimately, another fresh high up to 2671.50 was also reversed down to 2655.00, which was still being overlapped at the close despite first probing 9 points under it. Buyers gained no traction, but the pattern is vulnerable to extending either initial strength or weakness.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.