S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stepping out, and up (watch your step).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s pullback had held repeated tests of Tuesday morning’s 2637.50 bias-down target. The tests all held, as did its retest at Tuesday’s open. The morning’s 2645.50 bias-down signal held repeated tests as resistance, too — including at 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias and warn of a choppy environment. It persisted through the noon hour’s exit which surged 9-11 points to 2666.50. Another choppy environment persisted through the close, barely measuring 10 points at its widest. The likelihood for rewarding the morning’s accumulation with a probe above Monday’s high to 2673.75 was never fulfilled.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday afternoon’s choppy range persisted through midnight, at about half the width. Already firming back up to Tuesday’s highs suddenly surged into Europe’s opens, which was greeted at 2677.50. Its reaction down to 2670.00 has since developed a range narrowing around 2673.75.
If, then…
Having tested 2673.75 overnight, only sponsorship’s momentum and restrained optimism inhibit reversing down. Momentum is defined by the rally’s higher highs and higher lows, which remain intact. Restrained optimism is limiting the follow-through of surges. A post-open surge would maintain the series of higher highs and higher lows if it can limit both its follow-through and its reaction down. But not even surging post-open would be vulnerable to losing intraday momentum that attracts pessimistic selling. This ongoing rally from Friday afternoon’s lows still qualifies as being only a temporary correction, so it can’t afford deep pullbacks, or much delay between surges. Greeting Wednesday with multi-session trending makes today’s close likely to trigger a WedEX signal.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2670.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2666.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2676.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2673.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew its bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.25 | 2666.50 |
| …would target | 2675.50 | 2673.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2657.25 | 2655.50 |
| …would target | 2647.25 | 2645.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Testing and retesting the 1.2325 buy signal Monday paid off by probing it overnight. A second consecutive higher close above 1.2395 resistance — which was tested Tuesday afternoon — would next target 1.2465. Closing back under 1.2305 would signal the recovery had failed.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight up t 1333.50 reacted down into Tuesday’s open, but recovered at least to Sunday night’s 1330.50 high, which would qualify as a second consecutive higher close targeting a test of prior highs at 1341.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s “inside day” can’t qualify as a second consecutive higher close confirming Monday’s breakout. But neither does it reject Monday’s higher close, allowing early strength Wednesday to be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night’s rally to 144.30 peaked short of the intraday attack on the 145-16 buy signal, buy hovered above the 144-12 bounce limit. Still holding the bounce limit through Tuesday’s close keeps alive the potential for retesting Sunday night’s 143-04 low.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s weakness from the decline’s 59.80 initial target still needs to break under Friday’s 58.10 low to suggest the next target at 57.20 is now in-play, which remains and likely so long as 59.80 holds as resistance. Preferably, the pattern won’t retest 59.80 as this current segment of the decline should behave like capitulation.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Finally some signs of strength by gapping up Tuesday. But this creates unfinished business below at the gap down to Monday’s 2.55 close needing to be filled before a rally can be credible for extending higher. Meanwhile, extending the bounce has room up to 2.70.
Mid-day Update… And a programming note.
I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR TODAY’S LAST 90 MINUTES.
THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP.
Our long, national nightmare is over. Those lines on the nearby chart were all actionable if probed beyond their first 3 minutes.
Actually, it wasn’t as bad as that. It was worse. We had warning — if not of a “dry cleaners morning,” then at least from a noN-bias signal.
Nevertheless, it’s always astonishing in one way or another how torturous and frustrating the market can whiplash itself about.
The first hour’s range was resisted by its 2645.50 bias-down signal. It essentially supported the balance of the morning. Every test of the range’s 2650.50 inflection point above was only overlapped and never exceeded its first 3-minute extreme. The same went for its 2643.00 inflection point below.
As often happens with such mornings that do resolve the same day, their resolution tends to be swift. In fact, this afternoon’s 2650.50 bias-up signal was triggered on the way to its 2660.75 bias-up target several minutes later. Its reaction down is now probing fresh highs at 2663.00.
Room for noise above the gap back to yesterday’s 2654.00-2654.75 close is 2663.75, being attacked now to within 1 tick. Exiting the bias environment any higher would next target 2673.75 and potentially also 2684.00. Otherwise, until neutralizing overbought RSIs at the high, the nearest sell signal would trigger back under 2651.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 14, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s Retail Sales is always high-profile, but rarely influential to price action. Being released simultaneously with CPI might give it more sway this month, if only to establish a pre-crash baseline.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET