S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s knee-jerk reaction down to CPI filled the gap back to Monday’s close down to 1.2300 and reversed up to retrace the reaction. The reversal extended sharply to 1.2465 resistance, needing to close above 1.2435 to maintain the rally’s momentum.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Confirming Monday’s breakout on Tuesday didn’t prevent Wednesday’s knee-jerk reaction down to CPI, even after having probed fresh highs overnight above 1339.00. But the dip to 1319.00 was recovered entirely and well into positive territory attacking 1359.00. Holding 1350.50 as support keeps the rally alive, next targeting 1366.00. Back under 1341.00 would reverse momentum back down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lagging to the upside on Tuesday limited Wednesday’s CPI reaction to Monday’s post-open low. But its recovery participated in probing fresh highs, attacking the minimum 16.95 objective to within a nickel. Holding 16.80 keeps alive momentum to 17.11 and 17.40.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fluctuating around and above 144-12 for a couple of days created a position of strength for the expected retest of Sunday night’s 143-04 low to hold. Wednesday’s CPI reaction probed it down to 149-09, which doesn’t equate to being a buy signal, but now recovering 144-12 would seal a bottom.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s 58.10 low was itself retested at Wednesday’s open. But it didn’t break lower, and only bounced back to 59.80, then higher. It is not a bottoming pattern, but a corrective bounce does have room up to 60.75 before suggesting the downside momentum is lapsing.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s opening weakness filled the gap back down to Monday’s close and held. Thursday’s rally isn’t being greeted from the position of weakness of having “unfinished business below,” but already reversing up would have been bullish.
Mid-day Update… Break on through.
Overnight pre-plunge highs being exceeded.
Retracing the pre-open 49-point plunge from its 2627.00 low greeted the open at 2645.50, then retraced the rest by 2 extra points to 2679.50 soon after the session’s first hour lapsed. Ranging choppily flat-to-higher through the bias environment finally resumed trending coming out of the noon hour. Fresh highs have touched 2694.50.
Completing the retracement was no reason to expect trending attempts to end. Rather, the two legs told us that this environment is vulnerable to wide moves. The latest 17 points could suffice, or it could add another 4-6 points and attack or retest 2700.00.
RSIs diverged negatively on the latest blip-up to fresh highs, so upside momentum is being challenged. A pullback during the bias-up environment has room down to its 2676.75 bias-up signal just as noise without damaging the uptrend. But reversing down to 2676.75 AFTER the bias-up environment lapses would be less assured of recovering, and not protected from retracing much of the intraday rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Jobless Claims stopped being influential more than a year ago. But its recent record lows may change that, making any increase more of a surprise that impacts price action. Meanwhile, the only influential Fed Survey is released simultaneously with another survey, and with the high-profile and influential PPI.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2678.25 | 2676.75 |
| …would target | 2684.25 | 2683.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2665.50 | 2664.25 |
| …would target | 2657.25 | 2655.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Now, THAT’S inflation.
CPI reaction is retraced entirely.
The overnight fluctuation around this morning’s 2673.75 bias-up target had just begun improving into the pre-open CPI report. Oops.
Remember the oddities I mentioned this morning of yesterday’s treading range that barely measured double-digits, and the ranging through midnight that was single-digit in width? 
The knee-jerk reaction’s 49-point plunge probed 7 points under yesterday morning’s low.
The open was greeted at this morning’s 2645.50 bias-down target. Its 2655.50 bias-down signal was tested halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And the 2666.50 bias-up signal was being tested at 10:15. It triggered late, after having probed its 2673.75 bias-up target by 1 point. And now higher highs at 2676.75 are 3 ticks short of the overnight, pre-CPI high, pre-post-CPI knee-jerk reaction high.
Nothing requires extending or retracing. But a market that can plunge 49 points and rally 50 points within two hours is a market that can rally and plunge a lot. And the quick post-open surge to resistance I discussed before the open — albeit discussed in the context of probing fresh highs — is still a risk. Back under the bias-up signal when the bias-up environment is lapsing would be vulnerable to extending down sharply. Otherwise, entering the noon hour above 2673.75 would next target 2684.00.