S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 6, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week starts slowly for econ reports, not only compared to the week just ended, but with no morning report. However, a Fed speaker at the open does offer potential for influencing price action.
*Patrick Harker Speaks
9:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2943.50 | 2944.50 |
| …would target | 2950.75 | 2951.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2932.75 | 2934.00 |
| …would target | 2927.25 | 2928.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-up, Bias-up target exceeded.
Holding up, but holding back.
The relentless overnight rally had come within 1 tick of the 2929.25 bias-up target before Payrolls was announced. 
Its knee-jerk reaction from 2931.00 down to 2923.00 was quickly recovered back up to 2931.00.
The relentless rally resumed, greeting the open at 2934.00. Which the first hour has overlapped repeatedly. Four of the first hour’s 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped it, suggesting a Dry Cleaners morning — difficult, perhaps better off running errands.
Maintaining positive territory throughout the first hour does suggest that buyers are strong-handed. It doesn’t prevent dipping into negative territory, but it does suggest a dip would be temporary to find more sponsorship for the rally. Alternatively, rallying out of the bias window would suggest that sponsorship has arrived already.
A second test of its 2931.50 lower-end has now pierced its upper-end to 2939.50. Resistance at 2940.00 may challenge the rally initially, but sellers aren’t any likelier to retake control.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Greeting the news optimistically.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late collapse to and through its 2919.50 target was corrected overnight to its 2930.00-2934.00 objective at 2932.25. Dipping back down to 2919.50 into the open reacted back up to test the pre-open high. Triggering bias-up cleanly at 10:15 was invalidated at 10:30 as the balance of the morning bias environment collapsed down to 2901.00. Bouncing back to 2919.50 into the afternoon bias environment ranged narrowly sideways through the close, but for a momentary dip to 2910.00. .
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways ranging around 2919.50 broke higher to 2926.00. But only momentarily before settling back to 2922.00. Europe’s opens triggered another break higher to 2928.50 whose reaction is now trying to hold 2926.00 as support.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The overnight rally’s slope isn’t so steep as to labeled excessive optimism. But it is optimism anyway, and its sponsorship hasn’t gained any traction for the effort — yesterday morning’s 2932.75 prior high is still resistance. Having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, another retest would likely break higher. But 2936.00 and preferably 2940.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window to confirm momentum is reversing up. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00. Otherwise, not much support exists below in case of a negative reaction to the Employment Situation report. Perhaps some at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2922.75 | 2924.00 |
| …would target | 2928.00 | 2929.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2910.50 | 2912.00 |
| …would target | 2904.50 | 2906.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.