S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s late collapse had extended to and through the 2919.50 objective for the following open, making the pattern vulnerable to a corrective bounce. The correction’s likely objective at 2930.00-2934.00 was mostly probed overnight to 2932.25, and then 1 tick higher post-open. An interim dip back down to 2919.50 held the open.
The 13-point post-open corrective bounce wasn’t Thursday’s only rally effort. Neither was it the largest. But it did make it easier for another effort to succeed, having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, so another retest would likely break higher. Even then, 2936.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window, preferably 2940.00. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00.
Meanwhile, trending is difficult overnight ahead of an Employment Situation report. The impending event probably caused Thursday afternoon’s narrow sideways ranging. Not much support exists below. Possibly at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The backing-and-filling stage had begun almost immediately Wednesday upon testing 1.1300 resistance, reversing down to 1.1240 support at the pattern’s lower-end. It extended deeper Thursday, still having room a little lower to 1.1205.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s outperformance compensated for its delay in also sliding, by gapping down to two-week old lows and probing fresh lows attacking 1267.00. The fresh low’s recovery to close back above 1271.50 is essentially the bullish scenario described during the pre-open Market Tour. It wasn’t recovered, but still being overlapped into the close.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down under Wednesday’s low — regardless of how substantial either session dipped, let alone both — confirmed Wednesday’s breakout from the two prior days’ multi-session range. No buy signal or recovery will be credible until at least one more lower close is produced.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already dipping back down Wednesday to Friday’s highs that had held a test of “higher prior lows” and the gap-fill above, Thursday slid deeper to test the 147-04 sell signal. The original 146-30 sell signal was also being tested, again, which is the last opportunity to break lower.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s dip had allowed lowering the buy signal to 63.75, but dipping overnight back down to Wednesday’s 62.75 low gapped won and slid to fresh lows at 60.95. The buy signal is lowered again to 63.10.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength for the first time in months didn’t prevent sliding at the open from 2.61 to back under the prior highs that Wednesday’s close had broken. Which the EIA reaction extended down to Tuesday’s lows at 2.56 before recovering to attack 2.61.
Mid-day Update… BIAS-UP, again.
The last one was quickly invalidated.
This morning’s 2929.75 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. It had not extended higher before dipping to 2928.00 at 10:30.
The bars surrounding 10:30 were overlapping 2929.75, so we at least left the door open to resuming the rally. But its 2931.50 signal was only touched and not triggered.
A reversal’s 2928.25 signal did trigger, and it was very productive. Apparently reacting to word spreading that io another break in China trade talks, sharply lower lows at 2901.00 was tested while the bias environment lapsed.
Even if the morning’s bias-up were not invalidated at 10:30, it was invalidated by exiting the bias environment under its 2918.50 and 2911.25 bias-down parameters. So, its 2936.50 bias-up target is not “unfinished business.”
Meanwhile, rallying through the noon hour has now triggered bias-up again, back above 2912.00. The 2919.50 bias-up target is in-play. Already 2918.25 has been touched. Which is no assurance of extending any higher, and might instead risk having expressed too much optimism ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report.
The only “unfinished business” above is Tuesday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” high, which is the least attractive hierarchically. Not recovering 2930.00-2934.00, and preferably 2935.00-2936.00, could be very vulnerable to a negative reaction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 3, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is often released in a vacuum, but not this month. It is already both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action, and now more so for coming simultaneously with two other reports. And being a pre-open report, any noticeable reaction is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports. Two later Fed speakers should maintain the economic focus into Friday afternoon.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2911.00 | 2912.00 |
| …would target | 2918.50 | 2919.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2899.00 | 2900.00 |
| …would target | 2891.25 | 2892.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.