S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite the rally already having fulfilled its 1.2035 upside, and despite a confirmed sell signal, a strong overnight rally triggered by German political news created a gap up to new highs testing 1.2200. Extending higher into the weekend suggests probing at least some fresh high at some point Monday, regardless of the session’s resolution, and regardless of whether it is maintained through Tuesday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying through the week’s earlier 1328.00 overnight high to 1334.00 needed only to close above the week’s 1323.50 intraday high to signal a new upleg underway. The open’s plunge to 1321.00 was recovered to attack the overnight highs, and higher to 1336.00. Post-close action tested 1339.00. A second consecutive higher close would confirm the breakout.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s tests of the 16.95 sell signal had held, and sympathy with Gold enabled an overnight bounce to 17.20. Its post-open reaction down lunged to almost touch 16.95, and then recovered back up to the open’s highs. Extending higher through the close suggests a new rally leg is underway.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s open was greeted with narrow ranging, and still having potential for a bigger corrective bounce up to “higher prior lows” beginning at 150-16 or 151-26.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s reaction down from testing the longstanding 64.75 target extended down to test the 63.15 pullback limit, which held, and reacted up to 64.25.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight gapped up Friday and extended to probe the rally’s first objective at 3.17 by a nickel, still having potential for extending up to 3.29.
Mid-day Update… Does slowdown = down?
Pre-weekend volume contraction.
This morning’s rally peaked within 5 ticks of its 2787.00 doubly-renewed bias-up target. It didn’t require being met. Neither did its 2781.50 renewed bias-up target. A 7-point dip down to 2779.00 still recovered enough to exit the bias environment back above 2781.50. So, proximity to the high’s overbought RSIs makes its retest likelier today.
Back under 2781.00 would start to signal another pullb
ack, first. And 7 points may prove shallow. Even a temporary dip has potential down to 2776.00 or 2773.00.
Meanwhile, this being a Friday afternoon, sponsorship is difficult to attract. Let alone, reinforcements for the prevailing trend. And especially counter-trend sponsorship. More common is to trade out the session within the morning’s range, or to hold probes of either end of it.
So, while breaking lower could turn negative, that wouldn’t be normal. Just reversing down would be difficult if not underway already by the bias environment’s exit. And while a retest of the highs is likely, and likely to hold, Friday Factors enable drifting higher into the weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed Friday in observance of Martin Luther King. Globex opens normally on Sunday and trades through noon before re-opening normally Monday evening.
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Markets close
Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2786.00 | 2787.00 |
| …would target | 2790.75 | 2792.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2775.50 | 2776.75 |
| …would target | 2770.00 | 2771.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Resolved up.
Pre-open plop produces opening pop.
The overnight rally had run into resistance at this morning’s 2776.25 bias-up target. Ranging there broke lower in reaction to the CPI report, plunging back to the earlier 2766.25 overnight low. Its reaction up still tested the 2770.00 bias-up signal at the open. Which held, launching a rally back above the overnight highs to 2778.75.
Complexity while forming the overnight high made it a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. That’s often the same day, but not always. Today’s is already resolved. And exceeding the bias-up target through 10:15 has renewed the bias-up signal. Although not a requirement, the next higher targets are 2781.50 and 2787.00.
Back under 2775.00 would start to signal at least a pullback underway. And maybe only a pullback. A trend reversal would be possible, but less likely. It would be well-rewarded, too, eventually targeting 2730.75. But this being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour.