S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Biting off a lot for a Friday.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Immediately rejecting Wednesday’s inability to recover positive territory was the only path higher Thursday. Gapping up above the morning’s 2752.00 bias-up signal did that. Its likely reward was to probe Tuesday’s 2760.00 high. The 2757.50 bias-up target was probed but not exceeded for long enough to renew the bias-up signal. So the noon hour finally resumed the rally and fulfilled the afternoon’s 2765.25 bias-up target. The cash session closed equated to 2768.50 and futures extended another 6 ticks higher through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex initially dipped to form a narrowing range around yesterday’s 2768.50 cash session close through midnight. Then firming to fresh highs suddenly surged at Europe’s opens to new highs at 2776.00. The surge was brief, but has been maintained as price ranges around 2776.00.
If, then…
The overnight high’s surge happens to be ranging around this morning’s bias-up target. Gapping up yesterday was the only path higher out of Wednesday’s quicksand, but gapping up today isn’t necessary to extend the rally. None of which makes gapping up bearish, or prevents a reaction down from recovering. But since Friday Factors play uniquely on gaps because of the impending weekend illiquidity. The opening 15 minutes disposition of the gap is often very predictive to the balance of the session. So, regardless of the three-day holiday weekend’s bullish influence, exiting the open back under a relevant support could target another test of Friday’s close. Similarly, because of the three-day holiday weekend’s bullish influence, a firmer open could gravitate higher into the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2771.75 would be likely to trigger the 2770.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2768.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday time for Friday’s Morning Market to or we’ve got another rally overnight why not interesting set up here there’s maybe one minute to discuss it because it comes down to this up or down we had to go up or down likely that the market just fluctuates sideways nearly even chop Ali around the open Notice what happened I just want to point out the this as a template from Tuesday this is a new high Gap up to a new high on Tuesday fluctuated largely positivewhere liquidity declines Etc Trend turns are less likely things can get heated to the upside more so very quickly so if they Mark it’s going to reverse down today it’s going to need to do so pretty quickly through the open if it extends hired it’s just going to create more room to absorb being productivepretty resistant Euro up sharply Euro has no unfinished business above and it’s gapping up sharply I know unfinished business above but it confirmed breakout below this is not often that this happens it’s not usual but it’s not abnormal there’s a confirm breakout Mondays break confirmed Tuesday under a multi-session range the target of this rally was already met and this is coming back to New Year’s coming out of the New Year’s weekend retested and that overnight surging through all those prior highs to new highs this is a running correction and what do we know about writing correctionCrackdown I think it was on six Banks now at this very recent search he is coming close to the flavor Tracy mat it’s been a lot longer than it normally is
.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2769.00 | 2770.00 |
| …would target | 2776.50 | 2776.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2763.00 | 2763.75 |
| …would target | 2756.75 | 2757.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Gapping up Thursday above the morning’s 2752.00 bias-up signal had rejected Wednesday’s inability to recover positive territory. And it also created the consequence of retesting Tuesday’s 2760.00 high. There was already an attraction above at 2765.25, which the morning’s wide swings all but required being met. Two afternoon timing windows tested and retested it, dipping 3 points in the interim. But it was the position-squaring window that finally broke higher. The cash session closed equated to 2768.50 and futures extended another 6 ticks higher through the close.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday night’s surge had reversed back down throughout Wednesday’s session, but maintained its second consecutive lower close to require another eventual lower close. Thursday’s gap up back to Tuesday night’s high extended intraday to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1.2100 close. There is no outstanding attraction above, and back under 1.2030 would resume the decline.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Thursday morning after Tuesday night’s surge to fresh highs doesn’t reject the rally attempt, and almost suggests that it will be retried and extend. Meanwhile, the 1308.85 sell signal remains valid.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s flat-to-lower ranging pierced the 16.95 sell signal momentarily during the morning, and closed back at it. Any initial weakness would be credible for extending down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s session-long bounce still closed negative, confirming Tuesday’s breakout and requiring another eventual lower close. Bounce potential to higher prior lows around 150-26 or 151-16 remains alive, despite already filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 150-08 close and holding.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The longstanding 64.25-64.75 target was fulfilled at Thursday morning’s high, which traded out the session flat-to-lower. Back under 63.15 would reverse the trend down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position strength, and also from gapping up. Extending higher through the morning retested last week’s 3.07 highs, and a second consecutive higher close on Friday would confirm 3.17 and 3.29 are in-play.
Mid-day Update… Looks familiar.
New high, but holding its target.
The reaction from the open’s 2759.50 high had reacted down to 2753.25. Being pessimistically short of actually touching last week’s 2560.00 high,
its recovery was likely. And its recovery was likely to be measured in points, not ticks.
In fact, the morning’s high did touch 2760.00 before the bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction into the noon hour was recovered to probe fresh highs up to 2765.50.
That’s also a test of this afternoon’s 2765.25 bias-up target. It held through 1:20 to avoid renewing the 2759.25 bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment. If tested, 2759.25 should define the window’s lower-end. It can be broken durably later.
Nothing requires reversing down. Extending up is possible, but less likely since relevant resistance held through a relevant window. Meanwhile, this afternoon is vulnerable to backing-and-filling, and potentially reversing back down.