S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open CPI is both high-profile and influential to price action. The post-open reports aren’t either, at least not to the degree that they would be any likelier to duplicate any price reaction to CPI.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2758.25 | 2759.25 |
| …would target | 2764.50 | 2765.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2451.75 | 2752.50 |
| …would target | 2746.25 | 2747.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Two steps forward.
Attacking new highs.
After spending all of yesterday in negative territory, gapping up above relevant levels would be the only immediate path higher today. The least of those relevant levels was this morning’s 2752.00 bias-up signal. 
It was only attacked to within 3 ticks from 2756.50 above by a dip into and out of the open.
Maintaining the open’s gap kept alive upside momentum. The dip was recovered by almost a 7-point rally to fresh highs at 2759.50. The 2757.50 bias-up target was fulfilled along the way.
Touching the bias-up target during the open added a new dynamic, or adapted an old one. Its recovery through 10:15 became as important as was maintaining the gap up above the bias-up signal. Where the first setup succeeded, the second one failed. It’s still a bias-up environment, but whose bias-up target was no longer being exceeded at 10:15.
Near-term resistance at 2759.25 reacted down to violate its pullback limit, extending at least 6 points to 2753.25. But now near-term support at 2753.75 has just held a test, as did 2759.25 above. The pullback may have ended.
Since the initial rally stopped 2 ticks pessimistically short of touching Tuesday’s high, probing it is likely — and likely to be measured in points, not ticks, such as 2765.25. Meanwhile, still being a bias-up environment, a test of the 2752.00 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end. It can be broken after the bias environment begins lapsing without requiring a recovery.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The only path up is this.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s drop had been retraced somewhat ahead of Wednesday’s open. A blip-up to 2746.75 quickly collapsed to probe the overnight low by 3 ticks down to 2736.50. All of which was recovered as the morning’s bias environment was entered. Firming steadily into the afternoon’s bias environment probed the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2750.75 close where Nafta withdrawal headlines triggered another dip to 2744.00. An eventual bounce retraced 61.8% of the dip into the cash session close, still in negative territory.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initial narrow ranging under Wednesday’s late high was suddenly interrupted by a 5-point surge to 2754.50. A 7-point dip retraced it, and then some to test 2748.00. But that was recovered as quickly back up to 2754.50 by midnight, where price has hovered into and out of Europe’s opens. Only now is the narrow range breaking, with a probe to fresh highs at 2756.50.
If, then…
Yesterday’s intraday rally had stopped short of recovering positive territory. Twice. And the afternoon dip had exited the bias environment lower, without recovering, either. Extending yesterday’s rally without delay all but requires gapping up above relevant levels from Tuesday afternoon, which is currently indicated. Only now is overnight action repeating the aggression it had showed much earlier. That’s late enough to still be considered restrained optimism, and not so late to be considered weak-handed. Regardless, it must be maintained through the open to influence intraday action targeting a retets of Tuesday’s highs up to 2765.25, as its rejection would still target 2730.75.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.50 would be likely to trigger the 2752.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday but time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her and I’m not really able to classify this as a rally overnight and that may be the most bullish thing about it because otherwise having extended hire its optimism is restrained no it’s just back out for a moment from this very recent surge this surge that is matching the earlier search Globex initially narrow flat and then surged and suddenly stopped on a similarity they are but which is considerably back to all the way back up to hovering here and then also optimistically for not extending higher above Wednesday’s recovery itselfWednesdaystrong headed Breakout not too close to the or not too early to consider the overnight is having already expended all buying pressure just right up to a point still needs to be maintained for the open to extend iron today 12/8various pattern you can really see an inverted Head and Shoulders on a pull back will try and go for me here not bearish in the sense of distributive but didn’t really get a lot of momentum going so looking for at least a fresh High not necessarily anything more much more than that quite the opposite is the pound dipping more deeply I don’t have a cell signal at work on the pound this is pretty much just noise coming back down to lower eyes having left unfinished business the spike was or at least being absorbed and here is the low is being tested Euro as its
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2751.00 | 2752.00 |
| …would target | 2756.50 | 2757.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2742.00 | 2743.00 |
| …would target | 2736.50 | 2737.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.