S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already having tested and retested the rally’s 1.2025-1.2035 target Thursday without closing above it, no higher objective was in-play. Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1.2070 close, and held. There is no current signal.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
No fresh highs overnight left the pattern vulnerable to reacting down on Friday’s Employment Situation report, especially after Wednesday night’s narrow escape from testing its 1308.85 sell signal. The rally didn’t resume, but the up/down-crash scenario can’t tolerate any further delay without neutralizing itself.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report got very choppy, probing negative territory but not actually breaking lower. The report didn’t serve as a catalyst to trigger the up/down-crash setup, which would otherwise neutralize itself by only ranging sideways for another day.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight reacted favorably to Friday’s Employment Situation report, but only to attack the 152-22 buy signal to within 1 tick. That was close enough for its resistance to trigger a reaction back down attacking Thursday’s 151-20 lows to within 1 tick. Uptrending pivotal support is being retested, and any lower low would target 150-14 or lower.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness extended slightly lower Friday morning to 61.10, which had been the rally’s target. Even if broken below, the pullback now has room to 60.45 before signaling the trend is reversing down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s pullback extended lower overnight to test its 2.78 limit. Closing back above 2.86 would signal the pullback had ended and that momentum was reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Counting down to closing up.
At least a probe of fresh highs is likely.
Testing the 2733.00 bias-up target became likely when the 2727.75 bias-up signal triggered. Also testing the 2734.75 Globex high became likely upon getting back into its orbit at 2733.00. Both were done before the morning bias environment lapsed.
The noon hour dipped to 2731.00, and then back up to 2734.25. Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias. But Friday Factors open the door to simply drifting higher during the afternoon. That would have been more reliable had fresh highs been probed this morning. But exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the morning’s highs could still extend.
Until actually probing a fresh high, and maintaining it, there remains nearer-term risk of reversing back down to fresh session lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two early-afternoon Fed speakers are Monday’s only highlights, as no economic reports are due out in the morning.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:40 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:35 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2734.75 | 2734.50 |
| …would target | 2740.25 | 2740.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2728.00 | 2727.75 |
| …would target | 2721.75 | 2721.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up. Emphasis on holding.
Post-news lower than pre-news.
The 2733.00 bias-up target was touched moments before the Employment Situation report was released. Its knee-jerk reaction down to 2729.75 was reversed up as quickly to a fresh high and higher to 2734.75. Neither extreme extended, as as slide back between them greeted the open at 2732.25.
The 2733.00 bias-up target was touched again, which now also represented a 61.8% retracement back up to the pre-open high. Both being resistance, price collapsed to 2726.50. Its recovery touched the 2732.25 opening print, also resistance, triggering another reaction down.
The 2727.75 signal was attacked to within 3 ticks. But it had become too late to avoid triggering bias-up. This is a bias-up environment whose bias-up target has been met. Already having met the target, and having yet to probe the pre-10:15 high, another downdraft is possible. Anything under the bias-up signal would be similar to no-bias trending, and required to recover.
But it’s still possible — not so much to test the bias-up target that the open already touched, but also for an intraday test of the overnight “new Globex trend extreme.” A retest of the overnight high may be required, but could be delayed indefinitely. So, a break lower may not collapse, but its recovery wouldn’t be assured.