S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Optimism, or Pavlovian?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Closing above 2703.00 Wednesday had put into play 2722-2727. Rallying overnight greeted the open at 2719.00 quickly extended higher. And higher. The higher target was fulfilled as the morning’s bias environment began. Perhaps The balance of the session ranged widely between 2722-2727, not closing beyond either end to trigger a breakout in either direction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Breaking higher hasn’t ended, but it’s starting later and later. Last night’s ranging finally started rallying at Europe’s opens. Wednesday night had resumed rallying before midnight, and Tuesday’s intraday rally barely stopped. Today’s 2733.00 bias-target is now being attacked to within 1 tick as a shallow consolidation resolves up. There is complexity that already makes this a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day.
If, then…
Was yesterday’s late-afternoon’s weakness was caused by anxiousness ahead of the next morning’s Employment Situation report? Europe’s exchanges were closed then, and last night’s rally didn’t start until they had re-opened. So, already extending higher doesn’t reflect local optimism. Restrained optimism ahead of monthly payrolls actually tends to react favorably. Whether reacting well or recovering from a knee-jerk reaction down, trending up through the open could marginalize sellers for the morning and possibly also for the day. But the overnight origin of these new highs suggests it’s not optimism for the report. AND resistance at the bias-up target is already being attacked. So, be equally prepared for the rally’s sponsorship to disappear.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t available ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday morning Market to order quick quick note quick programming note at the top throw Saturday so we have a Saturday review it’s been several weeks because of the holiday weekends but we have a Saturday review this weekend with a Saturday review next weekend I think the next two weekends and then the last week of the month we actually skipping the following weekend back again so get it while you can instructions will be emailed in the morning tomorrow morning this morning we have again overnight and that pretty muchthat all aside I just know that if the open Trends up and if it Trends up after having reacted down need your reaction down if it Trends up just maintaining the overnight rally if the reaction brings in more shorts short-covering just trending up through the open will get every benefit of the dad for being able to extend higher in today after this pattern though just know that if that is not happening the open isn’t trending up if there is at this stageTripoli opposed or at least in the majority of outcomes there are outcomes that work out their issues by consolidating and relieving that big stretch of the rubber band that big stretch of the rubber band that’s either going to snap back down imagine yourself stretching a rubber band between your thumb and index finger with one hand and with the other thumb and index finger of the other hand stretching it back and it’s some point one or the other gives either you’re stretching it back let’s go and then rubber band snaps back so here’s the stretch and then it snaps back back down or the rubber band and you’re stretching it and then your hand goes flying in that direction in I call that the up down crash up down cuz it one way or anothernatural gas we could still have a couple big down days here coming down to 78th and that’s pretty much the limit of the pullback just as a correction because of these ongoing series of gaps up closing higher that’s a lot of strength not that it’s a lot of momentum that requires breaking higher but it creates a context to help absorb absorb a reaction down because there’s nothing there or rainforestbut I wouldn’t I would be surprised if that suddenly stopped Bitcoin this pattern not Barrett as I pointed out a couple days ago that didn’t prevent the dip there’s anything we need to dip was going to be recovered because it was originating from a bullet pattern short of that pattern size that pessimism despite having and we’ll go from there but still looking for 17000 alright
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2728.00 | 2727.75 |
| …would target | 2733.00 | 2733.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2718.00 | 2718.00 |
| …would target | 2711.25 | 2711.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s close above 2703.00 had put into play 2722-2727, which was already tested Thursday. Breaking beyond either end of the 2722-2727 range would be likely to trend in that direction. There’s no timing requirement to resolving the range. Obviously there’s not, as the targets’ morning tests bounced to either side of the 2722-2727 range through the close.
Sliding through the cash session close attacked the 2722-2727 range’s lower-end. It held, but it had already become too late for a break to be relevant. And that was after another effort to break lower had held 2724.50 through the proxy window.
Perhaps the late-afternoon’s weakness was caused by anxiousness ahead of the next morning’s Employment Situation report. Trending back up Friday morning could resume the rally, although still being vulnerable to reversing down into the weekend. Already trending down overnight might extend, but would leave a gap back up to Thursday’s close wanting to be filled.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding 1.2060 support Wednesday kept alive the rally’s momentum, at least to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1.2100 close and also to more thoroughly test the rally’s 1.2140 upper-end of its target area that was attacked Monday night. Thursday’s gap up almost immediately fulfilled both, and ultimately held without triggering any higher objective.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close test of 1308.85 down to 1307.00 was recovered into Thursday’s open, which then extended higher through the noon hour to test 1322.00. That was still almost a dollar short of Monday night’s high, “ineffectual optimism” that can’t tolerate another test of support.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sliding deeper after Wednesday’s close was able to hold a test of 17.05 support and greet Thursday’s open unchanged. Extending through the morning probed fresh recovery highs at 17.30, but closed back at or under the week’s two prior highs. Almost any immediate selling pressure Fridaywould be credible for extending down into and out of the weekend.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging sideways overnight had tested Wednesday’s lows ahead of Thursday morning’s ADP report. The low’s were probed a little to attack 151-16 as support, but eventually recovered to try filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 152-11 close. Regardless of closing in positive territory or not, closing above 152-22 Friday would target fresh recovery highs.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher without delay Thursday tested 62.20, now needing to hold 61.10 on pullbacks for potential to 64.75.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, but that didn’t prevent reacting down through the noon hour. Thursday’s 2.86 low was tested as support, and must hold to avoid a deeper pullback to 2.78 before recovering.
Mid-day Update… Targets met.
Morning surge is holding.
The open’s rally had peaked initially upon testing 2722.00. Its reaction down snapped back up into a 9-point surge to 2729.00. The portion that probed above the 2722.00 target was quickly retraced. And soon, so was the portion that probed above 2722.00.
2722.00 has since held. Its reaction up has stopped short of 2722.00. Twice. And now it’s being attacked again. There’s room up to 2727.75 without yet resuming the rally. Back under 2724.00 would start to signal another downleg underway.
There’s not timing to which way the 2722-2727 range resolves. But its resolution should extend in that direction. Resolving down and closing under 2703.00 could lead to a much deeper retracement of the recent rally. Extending higher would next target 2730.00 and 2733.00.