S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is quite busy, which is unusual when also reporting monthly payrolls. The reaction to the pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports, if not also to either of the two Fed speakers.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
10:15 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2727.25 | 2727.00 |
| …would target | 2732.00 | 2732.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2721.25 | 2721.25 |
| …would target | 2716.00 | 2715.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Uninterrupted.
Pre-open rally extends through the open.
The overnight rally to 2716.00 had dipped 3 points to probe back under yesterday’s highs. That was its last similarity to yesterday’s pattern until the open’s surge. In the interim, dipping back to yesterday’s highs not only held, but also launched another upleg.
Greeting the open attacking 2720.00 reacted only momentarily before extending the rally to test its 2722.00 objective. Another 3-point reaction down confirmed the level’s relevance. But it was soon recovered on the way to attacking the 2727.00 target. The attack was slow-played, but extended momentarily to 2729.00.
1-minute RSI is refusing to become overbought again, and 3-minute RSI is now leaving overbought territory. Back under 2725.00 would start to signal the rally was being reversed. But back under 2722.00 through a relevant window would signal momentum reversing down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Wash, rinse, repeat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s rally extended overnight until piercing Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high. Tuesday’s late 2696.00 high held a reaction down that suddenly resolved up at Wednesday’s open. Both bias-up parameters were exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, and the morning peaked at 2708.50. The noon hour’s breakout ultimately triggered the afternoon’s bias-up signal and peaked at its 2714.00 bias-up target. Reacting back down through the close touched the morning’s 2708.50 high. But closing above 2703.00 still put into play the next higher objective at 2722-2727.
Overnight action’s new info…
Other than starting a little later, extending the intraday rally to fresh highs has been identical to Tuesday night’s pattern. Both probed only slightly higher, neither formed a “new Globex trend extreme” yet requiring intraday retest, and both reacted back down down to touch the prior session’s high nearer to the open. one difference now forming is the dip back into yesterday’s range has been recovered back up to its origin, and now fresh highs are testing 2717.00 overnight high.
If, then…
Today’s version of the similar overnight pattern is starting to deviate further from yesterday’s. That difference might greet the open hovering at session highs, or might even develop into a surge. Regardless, a short-entry will be difficult prior to a post-open retest of overnight highs, and then its reversal. But a pre-open shallow dip would still be likelier to recover back to overnight highs. Entering the noon hour back under 2703.00 may be the only path still available to prevent extending to 2722-2727.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2714.00would be unlikely to trigger the 2715.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2709.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2706.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2715.75 | 2715.00 |
| …would target | 2722.50 | 2722.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2706.50 | 2706.00 |
| …would target | 2700.50 | 2699.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.