S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2679.25 | 2679.75 |
| …would target | 2687.00 | 2687.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2671.25 | 2671.75 |
| …would target | 2666.25 | 2666.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 2, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One economic report Tuesday morning, and it has a track record for influencing price action. Butit’s also less relevant to the higher-profile payrolls report coming Friday.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR’S! Thank you sincerely for subscribing. I’m glad you’ll be joining me in looking forward to an interesting and profitable 2018.
Friday’s sellers didn’t appear until the pre-open pop. But they were in control through the last drop. And it was a biggie.
Recognizing the week’s pattern of rejecting overnight rallies kept us alert at the open for a potential collapse. If we were disappointed, it was by not getting a post-open probe above prior highs. 
But the 2698.25 overnight high didn’t form a “new Globex trend extreme,” so its retest wasn’t required.
Tests of both bias-up parameters were rejected as the 2692.25 sell signal became very productive. The resulting no-bias put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. So did last Wednesday, but its no-bias was triggered late and its 2675.50 bias-down target was left outstanding. Friday’s clean no-bias still had to chip away at 2684.25 support until the 3:37 position-squaring window.
Admittedly, a head-fake after the 3:10-3:20 proxy window didn’t even hint at what was coming. But its bounce to 2686.50 was reversed nearly 18 points as price collapsed 2668.75 through the close.
“Unfinished business below” that had been outstanding all week is now neutralized. Not in time to recover relevant resistance by 3:57 which would have trapped sellers. But also not in time for closing under its lowest objective to put into play 2660.00 and 2640-2642.
Except for being a weekend, regardless of it being a 3-day weekend or year-end, Friday’s close would be likely to gap down and extend down at the next intraday open. It’s still possible, but the special circumstances do allow a path higher that essentially treats Friday’s late collapse like an anomaly by gapping up above 2684.25. The overnight new high’s retest would become very likely.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Globex re-opens Monday night at 6:00 PM ET. I’ll display a Bitcoin chart over New Year’s and comment where merited on any reaction.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday fulfilled the 1.2030-1.2075 target up to 1.2080. There is no requirement to trend any higher, but pullbacks meanwhile should holed 1.2015 as support.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending the rally overnight tested the 1298.00 target and gapped up to 1300.00. Extending higher intraday attacked 1310.00 with the next higher objective being 1311.00-1312.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Not extending higher overnight resumed the rally anyway at Friday’s open to test 17.15-17.20. That’s essentially the apex of the Oct-Nov triangle that had broken down to Dec’s 15.63 low. It is natural resistance, but the rally remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 17.05.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping slightly overnight to 152-10 still didn’t reject Wednesday’s surge, as neither did Thursday. The rally tried resuming Friday by attacking Thursday’s 153-04 high to within 1 tick.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having missed the opportunity to reject Tuesday’s surge, Friday extended to fresh highs attacking 60.50, with the next higher objective being 61.10.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Friday tested 3.00 before dipping back down to Thursday’s lower prior highs. The rally’s next higher objectives are 3.17 and 3.25-3.29.
Mid-day Update… Look familiar?
Morning drop hovering narrowly at lows.
That’s what yesterday’s session did. The overnight rally had reacted down immediately. The balance of the session hovered narrowly at the lows. A little bit of chop, which was masked by continually returning to the lows.
Yesterday’s drop had bottomed in the first hour, while today’s took 90 minutes. Both ended at 2683.25, then fluctuated around 2684.25, despite the open having created unfinished business below. Yesterday’s surged in its final minutes, and today’s… ?
Similar sequential setups tend to resolve differently. Sellers aren’t marginalized today. The afternoon’s no-bias environment has room down to its 2682.25 bias-down signal, essentially. No-bias trending under the bias-down signal on a Friday afternoon would not be unique. Probing it after the bias environment lapses would not be no-bias trending.