S&P
Post-open Review… Down, but not out.
Late no-bias is suspicious.
The shallow overnight bounce up to 2691.50 was already retraced back down to 2688.00 before the open. Post-open action quickly slid to 2684.75. So, back to Tuesday’s lows, right? Not so fast, there. The slide was retraced up to 2689.00, and then returned back down to 2684.75. So, NOW back to Tuesday’s lows?
Not quite. The 2685.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period. And it held up through 10:30 to trigger “late no-bias.” So, back up to the 2692.75 bias-up signal? That’s what the bias now indicates, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.
But still hovering at or around the bias-down signal is suspicious. It’s too late to trigger bias-down, or to invoke the grace period. Invalidating it requires exiting the bias environment under its 2680.50 bias-down target. A sell signal is in-play under 2686.50 that would be confirmed by fresh lows.
I’ll lower the buy signal to 2688.75 on fresh lows, and meanwhile give sellers a benefit of the doubt. Regardless, durable trending is unlikely today, so even if 2680.50 were tested, it is support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Silent night (except for Cryptos).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying 10 points from overnight lows had greeted Thursday’s open 2 points above Wednesday afternoon’s high. A session-long rally setup had formed. Similar to Wednesday’s open, the open failed to maintain its gap, and the setup did not complete. But unlike Wednesday, bias-up triggered anyway, and its 2692.50 target was met. The afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-up signal was tested, too, but not triggered. So the incomplete session-long rally setup influenced the balance of the afternoon, which fell 9 points to 2686.50, closing at 2688.00,
Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s slide hasn’t extended any deeper. Quite the opposite, price has rallied relentlessly overnight. Neither steeply nor substantially, and less flat-to-higher than higher-to-flat. The bias-up signal isn’t even being attacked, currently. Nevertheless, the open is indicated higher. Currently… Cryptocurrencies were extremely volatile, to the downside. I review them at the end of the Market Tour recording.
If, then…
Yesterday’s noon hour exit surged decisively through the 2688.00-2692.50 range’s upper-end. But it never attracted reinforcements, as its bias-up signal test held, and the break’s retracement into the bias environment exit was exploited by probing the range’s lower-end into the close. Holding the range’s lower-end is similar to having held yesterday afternoon’s bias-up signal test — extending the move must be done forcefully to avoid reversing direction. Yesterday afternoon reversed instead of extending. If the open isn’t already extending yesterday afternoon’s slide, then the balance of the morning will likely be spent retracing it, or at least trying. Regardless, trending isn’t likely to extend or be rewarded this afternoon. It’s Friday, before a three-day holiday weekend. Not yet trending through the open could range narrowly through the close, while trending through the open could end by noon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2694.25 would be likely to trigger the 2692.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2688.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday time for Friday’s morning market tour reminder at the top there is no Saturday review this weekend for the holiday there’s no Saturday review next weekend either same reason so any side she have to review please go and post them in the chart room during the day we will do a little bit extra on the post Club well on the market wrap two things about that will incorporate some of the into the market wrap or normally that would be truncated because of the Saturday review comingpattern of early bounces early gaps failing or holding be advised that if 90 to 1950 is being tested at the open that’s no Assurance of it actually being recovered the trigger 1975 is the bias up signal holding its test mostly the afternoon alrightdoes suggest pessimism witches boys from a contrarian perspective so I’m not raising the cell signal and natural gas which is reported that could be tested overnight yeah the morning isn’t already rallying then 258 will probably be tested the Euro which came back to test 119 overnight having proved it overnight already before probably get overnight just having tested it yesterday required extending down today or the brake lower would not develop prior to 1:20 well only makes that elevates the immediacy of needing to break lower or else and that or else is defined as one 1965failed ascending triangle that needs to be pretty obvious pretty quickly so today is trying to follow through if that fails to follow through no second consecutive higher close confirming today becomes very bearish finally the Aussie
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2689.75 | 2692.75 |
| …would target | 2696.00 | 2699.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2682.50 | 2685.50 |
| …would target | 2677.50 | 2680.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-up signal held its test from 1:20-1:30 to not trigger. But 2688.00-2692.50 was recovered. It could still have been rejected, being only a singular probe above 2688.00-2692.50 and having held bias-up (i.e. relevant resistance through a relevant timing window).
Rejected optimally, by exiting the bias environment back under 2692.50. That was the bias environment exit did test, but it held. Breaking back under the 2691.25 last relative low during another relevant window would still be credible. That was the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Being a delayed break, it was allowed only one bite at the apple.
The late break eventually pierced 2 ticks under the lower-end of 2688.00-2692.50, telling us several things. Trending isn’t attracting strong-handed reinforcements, but opinions remain widely disparate, and attractions above aren’t overwhelming attractions below.
Gapping up Friday above 2692.50 could reject Thursday’s late slide, and next target new highs at 2699.75-2700.75 and 2703.00. Extending the break under the 2688.00-2692.50 buffer would probe fresh lows under 2679.00 down to 2675.50. Not already trending during the first hour could range only narrowly through the close.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge above the original 1.1930 sell signal was retraced overnight and struggled to hold through Thursday morning. Breaking lower through Friday’s open would be credible for extending down. But not yet rejecting the bounce would make 1.2015 likelier to test, first.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-higher ranging into Thursday did not reject any of the recent gain, maintaining the uptrend and the 1283.50 target in-play.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging into Thursday did not reject any of the recent gain, maintaining the uptrend and the 16.85 target in-play.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s 151-16 close wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. Neither was it rejected, whether overnight to form an Island, or intraday. Gapping up above 151-16 Friday could still form an Island reversal, at least targeting 152-22. Just closing above 151-16, which is meanwhile resistance, would suggest some updraft underway.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh recovery highs overnight was retraced before Thursday’s open, and then repeated through the morning. The prior week’s 58.50 gap up was attacked to within almost a dime, where there is natural resistance.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from either a position of weakness or of strength, although last Friday’s 2.61 gap had just been filled and held by dipping from a position of strength above 2.71. There was no knee-jerk reaction, as price simply weakened to attack last Friday’s 2.58 low, which can hold to form a durable bottom.