S&P
Mid-day Update… The window might re-open.
Morning rally trying to extend.
Only minutes after triggering this morning’s 2687.25 late bias-up signal, the market surged through the open’s 2690.50 high and touched the 2692.50 bias-up target. 
The balance of the morning absorbed a shallow dip back to the open. The noon hour ranged flat-to-higher.
Exiting the noon hour in a surge to fresh highs ran into more bias resistance at the afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-up signal. Testing it at 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Not bias-up with a higher target, and not no-bias contained by the bias-up signal.
noN-bias often behaves like both no-bias and bias-up — hovering at the bias signal through the window, then essentially triggering it late as the window lapses. New highs would be almost unavoidable, targeting 2699.75-2700.75 and 2703.00.
Meanwhile, the noon hour’s exit is the only probe above the 2688.00-2692.50 buffer, below which the market become likelier to probe fresh lows under 2679.00 down to 2675.50. Exiting the bias environment back under 2692.50 would reinstate any near-term potential to fulfill those fresh lows before the holiday weekend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Durable Goods report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. So is the post-open Consumer Sentiment. And any noticeable reaction to the pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2692.25 | 2695.50 |
| …would target | 2697.75 | 2700.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2685.75 | 2688.75 |
| …would target | 2679.50 | 2682.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Picking off buyers.
One bullish setup busts, another still tries.
Pre-open action had extended the overnight rally to attack 2690.00. The open’s surge probed it by 3 ticks and then reversed down sharply 5 points. The opening 15 minutes of volatility went out attacking yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high.
The session-long rally setup did not complete. It wasn’t decisively rejected, but pretty close. So there is potential for as bearish a consequence as it could have been bullish. Back under 2685.50 would start to signal a retest and probe of yesterday’s lows underway.
Meanwhile, the 2687.25 bias-up signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window, invoking the grace period. Triggering it late at 10:30, or overlapping it then to trigger noN-bias, could still probe higher. Back above 2688.75 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway.
Regardless, trending doesn’t seem of interest. At least, not this morning. I would view skeptically any updraft or downdraft upon it meeting resistance or support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
With the window closing before the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness, resuming Tuesday’s drop couldn’t be delayed. And it would have to be aggressive to quickly reverse the 12-13 point overnight rally. Even more so for that already fulfilling the morning’s 2694.50 bias-up target. Extending any higher would have renewed the bias-up signal AND completed a session-long rally. But post-open sponsorship rejected both bias-up parameters, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And failing to complete the session-long rally was as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Plunging 13 points, and then 3 more, probed Tuesday’s lows down to 2679.00. Retesting its oversold RSIs became “unfinished business below,” along with a test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways up to 2688.25, and back down to attack session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging between 2681.00-2684.00 pierced a fresh low momentarily at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back into the range eventually extended the reversal and to break above the range’s upper-end. Now yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high is being attacked to within 1 point, touching this morning’s 2687.25 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Another session-long rally setup may be forming. After trending down into yesterday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon bias environment’s high could complete the setup. No specific slope would be required, but sellers would be marginalized, ultimately with potential back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00. The setup’s basis isn’t yet fully formed by actually probing above yesterday afternoon’s high, perhaps because of the attractions outstanding below. They could be the cause of not completing the setup, too, if it does fully form. In either case, the attractions below could be met by choppiness around yesterday afternoon’s range, without maintaining a trending attempt in either direction. And we’ll anticipate exactly that — a failed attempt to trend down again, only to recover after neutralizing the unfinished business below — whether or not a session-long rally setup fully forms, so long as it isn’t completed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2688.75 would be likely to trigger the 2687.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 for Thursdays morning market tour look this afternoon for volume too slow not so much as it will tomorrow that is ahead of the three day holiday weekend which has a seasonal bullishness to it not again for the holiday cheer although it should so much as for just the liquidity impending a liquidityTodd that inhibits sponsorship from stepping in so what’s going on not a lot overnight really you can see the effects of that impending seasonal bullishness and the two sessions of at least morning declines yesterday’s being even more powerful for having rejected an overnight rally the rally right up into the bios of Target 9450 it and it’s 8950 X up signal being rejected through the opening by a tell me what does it is at 10:15 put it into playoff setting test of both buys down parameters 8150 RT 250Now 26 7550 is unfinished business below so is a retested yesterday’s 2679 low for it’s oversold are its eyes and there is some trending here some substantial trending really 6 points worth relative to the three-point overnight range previous to that substantial but it’s still within yesterday afternoon’s range that is setting up potentiallyperception Long Valley is completed after trending down into the prior close if the prior afternoons bias environment high is the afternoons high and then completed by maintaining a gap up above that afternoon High so yesterday was well above the afternoon high but it wasn’t maintained and that set up all but its completion turns out to be as bearish as it could have been bullish well this isn’t yet formed so there’s nothing yet to complete not until actually probing above yesterday afternoonthen we get to monitor weather yesterday afternoon’s high is recovered through the open and if it is that’s a session long railing 2688 226 9250 resistance probably gets taken out and take it out easily and then there’s no requirement in a session long rally for any specific slope or substantiality only that dips be recovered by higher highs we could be back at the housewhat if the session on rally is formed the setup for it is formed by actually testing probing us afternoon’s High 2688 25 and doesn’t complete again that’s as nice as it could have been bullish we can reverse-engineer this and suspect that if it is attempted it won’t succeed so much similar to yesterday’s doesn’t have to plunge but still probe yesterday afternoon’s High because of the be at risk failing to complete the session long Rally Set up and take out lower lows satisfy the unfinished business below2679 2675 50th tested likely to hold likely even to start recovering we can reverse-engineer the attempt not just the formation of a session long rally setup that would be unlikely to complete or if it completely give it every benefit of the doubt but if it doesn’t complete we’re looking lower the meanwhile until there’s actually that formation because of that unfinished business below and because all of this has been expended so recently without even touching yesterday afternoon time we still have to look at the attractions below againuntil then the trend is down or at least bottoming alright looking at other markets gold which Road tire yesterday pretty much cementing or entrenching the upside momentum really defining range that is largely expected to hold or contain closes doesn’t necessarily avoid getting probed intraday but one more higher close today would all but confirm that this is the leg that’s going to fulfill the 8350 objectivea lot of economic reports coming out this morning that could swing out of way but bottom line is that there’s lot of support that was taken out very aggressively yesterday with new sponsorship if it doesn’t detract reinforcements today then at least some sort of corrective bounce is in play and there is at newheiser is unfinished business above so because but not extendthat gapped up dip back to support and then closed higher that support is now a cell signal under 5745 there’s otherwise room up to 5870 before new Highs are targeted new recovery highs Natural Gasnot greeting today’s eia report from a position of strength as in Trenton but not from a position of weakness that would have been the case had there been any unfinished business left outstanding in fact the unfinished business so would be at 1 3395as far as looking for something to to Gage alternative buying pressures and selling pressures vs Bitcoin which since the introduction of Futures has become range-bound not surprising either
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