S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2684.50 | 2687.25 |
| …would target | 2689.50 | 2692.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2677.50 | 2680.50 |
| …would target | 2672.75 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday left outstanding two pieces of “unfinished business below.” Oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2679.00 low, and an offsetting test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. There’s no timing requirement to neutralize their attractions. Rallying while they remain outstanding would be likely to fail. But their tests remain likely so long as 2688.50-2692.00 holds as resistance.
Testing the attractions below need only be done by backing-and-filling, or by a failed attempt to repeat Tuesday and Wednesday morning’s slides. But those slides were injected into a shrinking window of opportunity ahead of the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness. Closing the window doesn’t prevent another slide attempt, it only makes the attempt likely to fail.
So, a failed slide is likely to recover to test resistance above. First neutralizing the attractions below would be likelier to recover back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00 — perhaps into the weekend by then. Meanwhile, gapping up Thursday would have one chance to already rally to new highs, or else stretch the rubber band to probe under Wednesday’s lows.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1930 bounce limit was probed substantially Wednesday morning, filling a 3-week old gap back to 1.1975. Back under 1.1930 and 1.1910 would reverse the trend back down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s pause had avoided probing Monday’s highs intraday, despite having probed higher overnight. Probing another fresh high overnight again all but ensured trending higher intraday Wednesday, nearing 1277.50-1280.50 resistance.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending higher Wednesday probed overnight highs. Closing higher again Thursday would be likelier to reach the 16.65 target before another pullback.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Tuesday’s extended decline holding 151-16 through the close, Wednesday morning gapped down to fresh lows and tested 150-20. Closing back above 151-16 would at least rob the decline of its traction, if not also trigger a bigger squeeze. There is otherwise no buy signal.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight produced another gap up above the 57.45 bounce limit that once again reversed back down to the 56.85 sell signal. But rather than break, its touch launched a bigger bounce back above the open’s high The next opportunity to peak is at a gap outstanding from last week at 58.45, or closing under 57.45.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s slide filled the gap back down to Friday’s 2.61 close. Having originated from a position of strength of closing above 2.71, the dip is likelier to be recovered. And its recovery back above 2.71 and 2.80 would launch a credible recovery. So, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Time to back-and-fill.
A brief window for fresh lows.
This morning’s 2679.00 low was accompanied by oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs that require an eventual retest. That hasn’t prevented bouncing into and out of the noon hour, to within 1 tick of this afternoon’s 2688.50 bias-up signal. Too late. This afternoon is a no-bias environment, and its upper-end should be defined by 2688.50.
Meanwhile, rejecting both of this morning’s bias-up parameters had put into play offsetting tests of the morning’s both bias-down parameters. Its 2681.50 bias-down signal was tested, but a test of its 2675.50 bias-down target has become “unfinished business below.”
So, about that seasonal holiday bullishness… Recall that there’s a window for injecting a pullback before a decline starts losing sponsorship. Even if we knew with 100% certainty that sellers are done, the attractions below can be fulfilled by sideways ranging. The range’s upper-end is essentially resisted by 2688.00-2692.50, so any bullish scenario requires its recovery.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, and staggered, but has only two reports with a track record for influencing price action. And any price reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated with post-open reports.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET