S&P
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2685.50 | 2688.50 |
| …would target | 2691.75 | 2694.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2679.25 | 2682.00 |
| …would target | 2672.50 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Abridged too far.
Overnight rally and pre-open surge fall flat.
The pre-open Market Tour described the potential downside of not completing the “session-long rally” setup. Just probing yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 high had made it possible. 
Not maintaining its recovery through the open would be as bearish as the completed setup would have been bullish.
My pre-open comments reiterated the warning, despite the overnight rally having extended up to this morning’s 2694.50 bias-up target. Adding another point at the open didn’t help, it only stretched the rubber band, which then began snapping back down. Soon the 2689.50 bias-up signal was broken down to 2684.25.
No-bias triggered. After testing the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2681.50 bias-down signal was put into play. Also having tested the bias-up target, an offsetting test of the 2675.50 bias-down target is in-play, too.
Already, the drop has extended down to 2679.00. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are making higher lows, but still simultaneously oversold to require an eventual retest. Until then, at the earliest, no buy signal can be considered before the bias environment is at least within view of lapsing in a half-hour.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Addicted to pessimism?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Waiting until literally the last minute, Tuesday’s open finally postured defensively ahead of the scheduled afternoon tax reform vote in the House. And despite not first probing fresh highs to stretch the rubber band, the pullback compensated for its delay. The morning’s 9-point drop to 2688.00 that would have sufficed if tested Monday, and could have sufficed on Tuesday, was broken on the way to the final hour’s 2683.25 low. Friday’s “lower prior highs” were less than 1 point lower.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 high was already being tested well before the Senate ended debate over tax reform. A narrow-2-point range at 2689.00-2691.00 into and out of the vote finally broke higher with Europe’s opens. Or, tried. Its reaction down to 2689.00. But it tried, tried again, reaching 2693.25, with the earlier narrow range’s 2691.00 upper-end now being tested as support.
If, then…
The basis for a “session-long rally” setup formed by Tuesday afternoon’s 2690.25 bias environment high being the afternoon’s high, and by closing action having trended down. Maintaining a gap up Wednesday above 2690.25 would complete the setup, and probably target those evasive new highs. Not actually triggering the setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish — especially with the overnight rally offering the setup ample opportunity. Having delayed a simple corrective dip for so long, might the market now embrace its pessimism a little longer? Even without greeting the open at or above yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 highs, extending down would next target 2675.00, and potentially lower.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2691.25 would be likely to trigger the 2689.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2687.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays morning market tour look at yesterday afternoon yesterday afternoon we talked about this actually at the close we wouldn’t normally be or always be interested in identifying whether the afternoons High developed during the bias environment or if it was exceeded in a down trending day but it as it happened yesterday clothes Trend it down so we look back at the afternoons I and see that it did fall within the bias environment not after and that’s the basis for a session long rally setup if today’s open where to maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s highs then that would Trigger or complete setup to form to complete a session long rally setup so when word of caution even if there hadn’t been youcity of jective minimum minimum consequences would be expecting alright Copper Still firming even more so more power to it gets every benefit of the doubt but only for having recovered 309 310 and now for having probed above this and negotiated this down trending resistance gold even though it might not interfere with the ultimate goal the ultimate upside of ejected in either gold or silver if the overnight High last night is not repeated today that thing for a second consecutive session and some deep purple back is likely to happen on Monday and never the last extended down aggressively yesterday and tested not only its pullback limit but also last week slow recoverycurrencies earlier and there’s not a just a follow-up one thing about your out is that it is back to testing this one 1930 1 1930 the original cell signal do I need to hold that to at least avoid a gap fill at the one 1970 which there’s just no bullish reason for his been in a backing and filling to resume it extended at 1.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2686.50 | 2689.50 |
| …would target | 2691.50 | 2694.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2678.50 | 2681.50 |
| …would target | 2672.50 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open finally postured defensively ahead of the scheduled afternoon tax reform vote in the House. Sliding 7 points from 2697.25 extended down another 2 points to 2688.00 for the morning low. But the defensive posturing persisted into the noon hour’s 2685.50 lows at the afternoon’s bias-down signal.
Ranging higher into and out of the actual vote held 2690.00 resistance. Defensive posturing was no longer needed. But why not. Fresh lows into the final hour reached 2683.25.
That last low had a bullish purpose which the morning’s drop had tried, and the noon hour drop avoided. It was to stretch the rubber band down so it could snap back up. The morning’s test of 2688.00 never recovered 2692.50, and the noon hour’s low only firmed off of the bias-down signal’s test. The final hour’s low attacked 2688.00 and reacted down entirely.
Tuesday afternoon’s 2690.25 bias environment high is the afternoon’s high, and closing action trended down. So, maintaining a gap up Wednesday above 2690.25 would form a session-long rally setup targeting those evasive new highs. Meanwhile, simply extending down would next target 2675.00, and potentially lower.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.