S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did it, or didn’t it? It did. They did.
Gapping up above Thursday’s 2664.00 afternoon bias environment high after trending down into Thursday’s close had formed a “session-long rally” setup. It doesn’t require extending steeply, but this one did. It’s only likely to probe each prior timing window’s high, but one. This one probed them all.
The afternoon bias environment’s low was 2677.25. The bearish WedEX’s influence doesn’t prevent interim rallies. It only requires a downward bias. Friday afternoon’s higher and higher highs were irrelevant, so long as they resolved back under 2677.25. First, upward momentum had to stop, which it when the 3:10-3:20 proxy window was exited at the bias environment’s 2682.25 high. Collapsing 8 points probed 3 points under 2677.25 to 2674.25.
The late drop wasn’t maintained. But 2677.25 wasn’t recovered before coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close, and then it was only being overlapped. Futures surging back to 2282.50 through settlement was irrelevant.
So, a lot of buying pressure was expended Friday, without gaining traction for the effort. The new trend extreme close on a Friday was almost credible, except for its leg still overlapping Wednesday’s prior high. That only relieves the obligation for at least one more new trend high close, but not necessarily a new intraday high.
seasonal bullishness, downrend near-term
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- I’LL EMAIL TOMORROW’S LINK TO 9:30 ET SATURDAY REVIEW IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Weaker Friday morning tested 1.1755 which must break lower to confirm no bottoming pattern has formed, and that the larger decline has resumed.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1251.00 and 1255.00 during Thursday’s pullback kept alive Wednesday’s post-close momentum, which gapped up at Friday’s open. Drifting back down to unchanged through the morning closed flat on the day.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback had held 15.85 to maintain the potential that Wednesday’s post-close rally had ended the decline’s momentum. Gapping up Friday didn’t extend higher, but was supported intraday by 16.05 to maintain the rally’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednedsay’s breakout and Thursday’s confirmation extended higher Friday to test the next buy signal that would be triggered by closing above 154-08.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength gapped up Friday to test 57.40, which must hold as resistance to maintain Wednesday’s 56.80 sell signal targeting 55.50.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not trending down Thursday despite overnight and intraday lower lows down to 2.64 did open the door to begin bottoming. But Friday eventually resumed the decline to new lows. The nearest buy signal would be triggered above 2.72 and confirmed above 2.80.
Mid-day Update… Next?
And back to having no unfinished business above.
Unfinished business above at 2677.75 was fulfilled as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. Its 3-point reaction down was recovered to higher highs at 2679.00 during the noon hour. Overbought RSIs at the target were neutralized, and not replaced. The 2678.75 bias-up signal did not trigger. There is no higher objective in-play, and no further unfinished business above outstanding.
The session-long rally has probed each prior timing window’s high, with two remaining — the afternoon bias environment, and the last 60-90 minutes. At least one should probe its prior timing window’s high. The final hour could plunge, and still have fulfilled the rally setup if 2679.00 is probed before then.
The bearish WedEX could cause the final hour to plunge. Or it could cause the final hour to drift lower. It can co-exist with the session-long rally, so long as one more fresh high is probed.
Meanwhile, the knee-jerk reaction to Rubio saying “yes” (the first time, try to keep up) should be retraced down to 2666.75. The choppy enhanced volatility environment that was signaled Wednesday is now greeting the Friday Factor’s afternoon slowdown potential. It’s difficult to maintain trending, but no easier to reverse it.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s post-open report isn’t usually high-profile, and it has no track record for influencing price action.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2675.75 | 2678.75 |
| …would target | 2681.50 | 2684.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2668.75 | 2671.75 |
| …would target | 2662.75 | 2665.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.