S&P
Post-open Review… Paradigm shiftiness.
Rubio catalyst does a 540-degree turn, while the market’s content with a 180.
The overnight rally that had been ranging flat-to-higher had just started breaking higher when we finished this morning’s Market Tour. Extending to 2665.25 was retraced 3 points to attack the flat-to-higher ranging from above. The two never touched before surging to 2667.75 pre-open.
Immediately improving another point immediately began consolidating through the 10:15 bias timing window, ranging between 2666.00-2669.00. 
The 2565.75 bias-up target was only attacked to within 1 tick, and the bias-up signal was renewed.
Almost like clockwork, the Rubio catalyst behind yesterday’s drop announced another reversal. Spiking up through the 2671.75 renewed bias-up target to 2675.50. The doubly-renewed bias-up target is the pre-existing 2677.75 “unfinished business above.” It can be neutralized by attacking it to within 1 point.
Almost like clockwork again, the Rubio headline is being walked back, sort of (“hasn’t seen the text”). Even if not, its knee-jerk reaction should be retraced to its 2668.00 origin, probably down to 2666.75. Already, the spike has been retraced to 2670.50. Back above 2673.75 would suggest the high’s overbought RSIs will be retested first, presumably at least 2676.75, too.
Meanwhile, we have two contradictory setups trying to co-exist. Maintaining the gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2664.00 bias environment high has formed a “session-long rally” setup. Every timing window but one should probe its prior timing window’s high. Which will be difficult this afternoon against the bearish WedEX’s influence. Unless the one window exception is the bias environment or last 60-90 minutes. Either of which could contain a deep slide.
As a reminder, the week’s earlier indications of strong trending attempts, which fail and reverse, continues to play-out. Nothing has changed, and this morning’s rally is as vulnerable to reversing.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… One set of sellers flushed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s night’s swing and Wednesday’s choppiness had suggested the market was primed for trending attempts, regardless of whether any succeeded, which they weren’t likely. Primed for volatility, Thursday’s “dry cleaners morning” was a disappointment as price ranged narrowly. The price collapsed, from 2671.00 down to 2664.50 through the noon hour. The afternoon’s noN-bias environment lapsed at session lows at 2654.75. A 7-point bounce failed as oversold RSIs attracted price back down into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Retesting the 2654.75 low’s oversold RSIs was likely to visit 2653.00. Globex almost immediately fulfilled it, piercing it momentarily by nearly 2 points. Trending back up 4 points eventually surged another 3, and then added a point ranging flat-to-higher testing 2661.00 into and out of Europe’s opens. The range is now trying to break higher.
If, then…
Triggering a buy signal above 2659.50 into yesterday’s last half-hour was momentarily productive, and could have triggered a compelling hold-long setup. The buy signal was sacrificed to retest the low’s oversold RSIs and to test its room for noise at 2653.00. Having neutralized their attraction below, another buy signal should be much more productive. The overnight rally is a good start, but it must be maintained to trigger bias-up to even attack “unfinished business above” at 2677.75 before the afternoon’s bearish WedEX’s influence. Post-open weakness isn’t required to remain within yesterday afternoon’s range.Meanwhile, gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2664.00 high would form a “session-long rally” setup. That can co-exist with the bearish WedEX only by rallying into a late-afternoon collapse.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2662.25 would be likely to trigger the 2659.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2656.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it’s Friday at 7 for Fridays morning market tour interesting set up here where are they headed up or down how’s that for precision open with the morning is unlikely to sit still that possibility probability actually yesterday and yesterday the morning actually became a dry cleaners morning just sitting still or at least remaining in the range and relatively narrow rain it compensated for that delay as you can say we are in an environment that wants to trend has not necessarily too widely to Spirit camps of opinion that are trying to Trend in either direction but that’s the net result is it tries to Trend in either direction and remember the one unlikelihood at least so far is that those attempts won’t succeed that they’ll get so far and then reversedand since we have a very sweat X influence this afternoon it’s unlikely that a session long rally setup rally into the clothes so maintaining the Gap above 2664 in the late afternoon and then great potential to collapse from there otherwise it would be in contradiction to the very sweat X the session long rally setup played out any other way if it were the trigger which means it probably wouldn’t form that way so the two alternatives andthe upside momentum it lapse closing under 7650 reverse momentum back down the pound got a pretty big correct to bounce out of here also testing 13450 that’s a pretty critical level more critical is to reject yesterday’s close above 130 425 to resume or maintain really the top penis this was not sufficient to reflect the distribution or the line pressure that was satisfied at the highs but brexit talks or brexit news I should say so this is what needs to beand that is regards the Bitcoin halving shredded down or at least stabilized was good for ethereum Bitcoin trending backup perhaps it’s that the benefit rotation out of and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 200 pretty soon
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Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2656.00 | 2659.00 |
| …would target | 2662.75 | 2665.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2648.50 | 2651.50 |
| …would target | 2642.00 | 2645.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Recently expanded volatility had suggested the market was beginning to argue more aggressively with itself. More obvious trending attempts would be made, but not necessarily would they succeed. 
Which is why Thursday’s “dry cleaners morning” was surprising.
The balance of the session compensated. Hardly waiting for the bias environment to come within view of lapsing, the otherwise narrow range started sliding from 2671.00 down to 2664.50. Its 61.8% retracement up to 2668.50 reversed down through the noon hour, triggered noN-bias, and extended down through the bias environment to 2654.75.
Oversold RSIs at the low didn’t prevent bouncing 7 points to attack 2662.00. That was only 2-4 points short of levels whose recovery through the close would have been a compelling hold-long. That’s one way to reverse up. But the last half-hour dropped to retest the low and neutralize its oversold RSIs. That’s another way to reverse up — if followed by recovering a relevant resistance.
And that’s the missing ingredient to a rally — a buy signal. “Unfinished business above” at 2677.75 is already outstanding. That’s *only* 20 points above, with a bearish WedEX afternoon impending. The most credible catalyst would be a reversal of the news that supposedly triggered Thursday’s drop. Not yet recovering through the morning would be difficult to recover before Monday afternoon.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s correct bounce and Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up to 1.1845‘s original sell signal reacted down sharply during Draghi’s press conference. The reaction collapsed to probe under 1.1790, whose break would resume the larger decline.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close surge in reaction to FOMC had required Thursday’s pullbacks to hold 1255.00 to maintain the upside momentum, or at least 1251.00 to avoid invalidating the surge’s recovery attempt — the latter can still be rejected since it was only being tested and not yet recovered before FOMC.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging after Wednesday’s FOMC news required pullbacks to hold 16.05 as support to maintain the upside momentum, or at least 15.85 to avoid invalidating the surge’s recovery attempt — the latter can still be rejected since it was only being tested and not yet recovered before FOMC.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still overlapping the 152-18/153-10 range’s upper-end after Wednesday’s FOMC reaction wasn’t decisive enough to avoid more backing-and-filling overnight. But Thursday morning firmed further to probe above Wednesday’s highs, whose recovery through the close would confirm a new rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s open gapped down from Wednesday’s close under the 56.80 sell signal, but immediately bounced to test 56.80 as resistance. The 55.50 target remains intact.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already probing fresh lows overnight didn’t help the pattern that was greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. The reaction wasn’t dramatic as the two-day range persisted, offering potential to form a bottom.