S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s PPI is the day’s only high-profile report, but it is also reliable for influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2658.25 | 2661.25 |
| …would target | 2664.25 | 2667.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2550.75 | 2653.75 |
| …would target | 2644.00 | 2647.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A bigger boom.
Pre-open implosion explodes higher post-open.
The knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open pipe bomb had plunged 5 points from 2657.25. Because of its catalyst, the plunge was likely to be retraced entirely.
Hovering pessimistically short of the plunge’s origin was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. And “unfinished business above” at 2660.50 was outstanding above.
All of which combined to absorb the retail crowd’s post-open knee-jerk reaction down. It was much shallower and only touched the 2654.50 bias-up signal. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had not resolved up, but a surge soon tested 2660.50 to within 1 tick. RSIs essentially diverged negatively on its retest. There is no other unfinished business above.
Exceeding 2660.50 through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal. It held. This is still a bias-up environment, capable of extending higher. Back above 2659.75 would start to signal the rally extending, next targeting 2667.25. Back under 2656.50 would have room to test the 2654.50 bias-up signal as support during the bias-up environment, and much more room afterward.
Pre-open comment… Knee-jerk reaction rule in effect.
The explosion at Times Square triggered a 5-point drop to 2652.25. The potential for lower lows was likely so long as 2654.50 held tests as resistance. It didn’t. Back above 2655.50 is starting to signal the dip was absorbed and that momentum is reversing back up.
Intraday action is likely to experience some selling pressure, too. It must hold tests of 2653.25 to avoid a deeper drop.
What do we know about knee-jerk reactions to headlines? They’re usually retraced to their origin. This morning’s drop originated at 2657.25, which has only been recovered to within 3-4 ticks. That was at least 15 minutes ago.
The hesitation is pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, an opening dip has room down to 2653.25 before becoming unlikely to trigger bias-up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stealing thunder.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up entered a morning-loing whipsaw range between 2647.75-2651.25. Breaking out at noon held up high enough and long enough to trigger late bias-up. The signal wasn’t productive, but neither was it rejected, despite having ample opportunity. Its 2660.50 target becomes “unfinished business above.” It wasn’t exploited. The afternoon’s dip to 2649.25 retraced 61.8% of the morning’s range, which the close recovered by piercing a fresh high up to 2655.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-up to 2657.75 and back down again to this morning’s 2654.50 bias-up signal. The signal has supported interim pullbacks while ranging flat-to-higher, attacking and probing higher highs up to 2658.50.
If, then…
The first event of this big week has been interesting, concerning, and inconsequential. Bitcoin futures on the CBOE launched to 10% and 20% rallies, essentially separated by trading halts. We’ll be checking the chart occasionally intraday for updates. Wednesday’s FOMC statement and Fed Chair Q&A will be tomorrow’s focus. Today will answer whether rallying into the weekend was a corrective bounce that is ending at a test of 2660.50, or if seasonal bullishness just around the corner can attract sponsorship for new highs targeting 2667.25 and 2673.00. The latter probably requires triggering this morning’s bias-up signal, and its only catalysts either way are headlines about tangential news. Last night’s highs don’t require being intraday retest, so not triggering bias-up could be very productive to the downside — even without first testing 2660.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2657.50 would be likely to trigger the 2654.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2651.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour when I go to be looking at Bitcoin very often I’m going to say at least once in the morning at least once in the afternoon and I’m going to bring it up bring up the chart whenever there’s anything that’s relevant and frankly the one thing that I’m most curious about not that there is a 10% pop at the Futures open not that price improves especially in the early going for just many reasons or no reason at all I’m looking more at what happens when Bitcoin goes down its whole purpose of more liquidity more instruments to trade it more participants is greater price discovery and just to see how it goes how it goes at rating when price goes down and not just for Bitcoin but also for etherium and I’ve chosen Litecoin is another just to have a 1/3 in there I like some of the other aspects of that in the charting of it but that’s that’s what we’ll be looking for or maybe when Bitcoin actually dips that or how long it takes for money to move into aetherium and Litecoin or the others just as basically not being exposed to future’s going to see a lot of a lot of interesting questions for today is Friday that is intentional 2654 50 being the biceps right here being this is March Futures now we do have unfinished business but it wasn’t rejected unfinished business to be tested before any kind of a reversal down tries to gain Steam having said that if she isn’t tested first before this overnight range breaks its overnight low go to set the overnight range and therefore under the 5450 450 that’s just set up that we look at as far as the overnight low 54 and then clear up signal doesn’t trigger 6050 26 650 has been tested first several close by moving parts rotating planets that can make the biggest difference to whether or not proved to be only a temporary bounce before reversing down at least two testsor if there is a bigger6725 and 73 alright other markets gold Flat to hire the really in a Range 5550 is still vulnerable to extending down close by 5515 we can start looking for some kind of a Buy Signal nothing noticeably different on copper just still holding out here hanging out not extending down remember the whole problem with cut with a pattern on copper is extending down still not a silver trying to scrape out a bottom here which it may not having tested 1565 they really are 1567 there really is no unfinished business below it’s always helpful to get that done intraday but not necessary silver is One Market that often leaves overnight lows outstanding for a while but with silver regards to silver closing about 1590 would suggest momentum is going to reverse up it doesn’t get price away from retesting overnight lows cuz you have 1604 1605 would suggest momentum is reversing up long Bond up 11 ticks but really in a Range in a Range that hasn’t been rejected hasn’t been confirmed that is 153 10 still needs to recover 154 basically 150 408 154-10 to suggest something more substantial under way to the upside there is a likelihood of testing on 5408 on a break above 15312 15314 but that’s really it crude oil and only ranging around 57 on Friday that extension tire back under 50 plus natural gas under the 286 Gap under the 287 otherwise a couple days on Friday so there’s no requirement to but it is if there’s a balance it has room up to 290 before even suggesting momentum reversing up and really what I’d look for it since there’s a gap that would be outstanding below comes down to 80 or so and then recover signals that are in place and Romaine and play that is Thursday’s break continues to hold confirm Thursday’s break or deeper than Thursday’s break and that Buy Signal would go away bouncing but that’s after I’ve been confirmed all button trenching Sellers and finally missed an opportunity to recover 8920 last week on Wednesday before breaking lower Thursday and even lower Friday basicallyChen’s Garden Post in the chart room anything else to look at and I will see you there before they open good luck today
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