S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2651.75 | 2654.50 |
| …would target | 2657.75 | 2660.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2644.25 | 2647.00 |
| …would target | 2638.00 | 2640.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning contained and constrained the market in a relatively narrow 2647.75-2651.25 range. The noon hour wasn’t entered any higher, but the afternoon bias environment entry sustained a breakout. And it triggered bias-up, putting into play its 2660.50 target.
Not that the balance of the session exploited any of that. The bias environment exit dipped back into the range’s 61.8% retracement at 2649.25. The proxy window came and went without extending deeper. The morning range’s upper-end was pierced, but not really probed again until coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close.
So, ending the day by piercing a fresh high up to 2655.00 doesn’t make the rally any likelier to extend immediately. But the new “unfinished business above” at 2660.50 helps, and could extend higher without delay. Thursday’s 2642.00 “lower prior highs” would likely recover from a pullback’s test, but not from gapping down any lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’LL SEND THE SATURDAY REVIEW LINK IN THE MORNING. JOIN US THERE BY 9:30 AM ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially extending down more aggressively to the 3-week old prior low at 1.1780 all but confirmed the 5-week rally’s back is broken, and targeting a complete retracement to at least retest 1.1580.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursay’s lat selling tested targeted support at 1253.00, greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness. Its reaction plunged further to test 1244.50, still not forming a bottom or buy signal.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Almost all of the 15.65-15.70 target was tested before Friday’s Employment Situation report. Reaction to the news wasn’t substantial, and only firmed around Thursday’s range. The 15.90 intraday high stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 15.97 close. Target met, and held, and ineffectual pessimism, all suggest that initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late break under the 153-10 sell signal could have been last-minute pessimism ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. That would be potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Perhaps it was, confining the reaction to a narrow range around unchanged, and not confirming the prior day’s break. Early strength would be credible for testing 154-00, which must be recovered to start signaling momentum reversing up.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying overnight gapped up to what had been the prior rally’s 57.40 buy signal, which is now the bounce limit to maintain the current downleg’s 55.50 target area that would be triggered back under 56.80.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrowly ranging session creates a multi-session range with Thursday. It also fails to confirm Thursday as a breakout. Closing higher or lower would trigger a new breakout.
Mid-day Update… Lightly triggered.
Bias-up signal is resisting.
This morning’s bias environment wasn’t exited above the open’s 2647.74-2651.25 range. But the upper-end was still being tested, and it broke higher during the noon hour to 2654.50. That wasn’t too late to be credible, but it remains vulnerable.
This afternoon’s 2653.50 bias-up signal was still being tested to invoke the grace period. It triggered late, by the grace of a single tick. And it hasn’t improved since. Actually, a 3-point reaction down from 2655.00 is now attacking 2652.00 as support.
Any lower would trigger a sell signal. If reinforced any deeper than its first 3 minutes, then a probe under this morning’s lows would be likely, at least. Unless and until a sell signal is triggered, this afternoon’s 2660.50 bias-up target remains in-play.
Being Friday afternoon with two days of impending illiquidity fast-approaching, the window for reversing down is quickly closing. Exiting the bias environment without yet reversing down would be vulnerable to extending higher into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 11, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monthly payrolls is followed by the Jobs Openings data. And it can influence price action when it diverges from Friday’s numbers, or if it confirms a payrolls surprise. Its influence is helped by being Monday’s only report.
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET