S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing lower overnight didn’t ensure finally triggering the 1.1860 sell signal that was still being tested during the two prior sessions. In fact, Thursday morning rallied up to the 1.1930 sell signal that had triggered Monday. Its resistance held, and closing back under 1.1860 would still signal the trend reversing down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break under the 1288.00 sell signal extended down a little deeper overnight and through Thursday morning, accelerating through 1283.50 and 1280.50 to 1273.00. Next targeted is 1269.00, so long as bounces now hold 1278.00 as resistance.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Further weakness overnight and Thursday morning extended under the 16.60 objective met Wednesday. Stopping optimistically short of the 16.80 objective previously had ensured a deeper test of the next attraction. And now fresh lows are being probed. This is not a pattern that reverses up sharply, not durably, so no buy signal is expected until next week.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Several overnight probes under 153-00 support weren’t very promising for recovering 153-20 to resume the rally. Indeed, the morning broke sharply lower to 152-04, targeting at least “lower prior highs” down to 151-06.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already bouncing overnight above the 57.40 buy signal, Thursday morning dipped back down to the 56.80 pullback limit that had held Wednesday. It was tested throughout the balance of the session, still needing to hold for the pullback to have ended.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back down Thursday under 3.12 was the only way to reject Wednesday’s close above 3.16. Extending down sharply intraday to test 3.01 already indicates the trend reversing down, attracted to gaps outstanding below, and to a fresh low targeting 2.87.
Mid-day Update… Alley oops.
Seemingly weightless rally rediscovers gravity.
Maintaining the open’s gap up had created an anchor that would be likely to attract any reaction down back up. Reacting down was possible, but only as backing-and-filling down to yesterday afternoon’s range.
That wasn’t necessary.
Rallying wasn’t the only alternative to backing-and-filling. But rallying would require a specific characteristic — aggression. Rallying out of the open’s range would have a steep slope,
or else it wouldn’t be credible.
The morning’s bias environment had already rallied 8 points through 2638.50 up to 2646.50. Its 5-point pullback triggered a sell signal that was barely productive before entering the noon hour, which resumed the rally. Before the noon hour ended, the rally’s 2657.25 target was being probed by 5 ticks.
Reacting down into and out of the 1:20 bias timing window still managed to renew the bias-up signal above 2651.00. But 2657.25 was the renewed bias-up target, and it was already met. The reaction extended down to within 2 ticks of this afternoon’s 2645.50 bias-up signal — which should define the window’s lower-end if tested.
Probing under 2645.50 during the bias-up environment would be “bias-up downtrending.” It would require being retraced to the bias-up signal, if not also to the 2652.75 1:20 print when bias-up was triggered. The 2645.50 bias-signal is so far holding. A bounce limit is being tested, perhaps to slow-play the clock until breaking under 2645.50 would no longer be subject to recall.
Extending under 2643.75 would start to signal something more substantial underway. It would all but require a complete retracement back down to 2629.00. It could evolve into something much deeper.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 1, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Bullard’s comments on Friday might still get a reaction. Two of the post-open data are more likely to influence price action, being post-open and staggered, and also being different takes on the same area which can reinforce outliers or see contradiction.
*James Bullard Speaks
9:05 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2645.25 | 2645.50 |
| …would target | 2650.75 | 2651.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2638.25 | 2638.50 |
| …would target | 2566.25 | 2633.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Positioning strength.
Gap up maintained.
The pre-open high eventually touched 2636.75.
It was an errant tick above this morning’s 2635.50 bias-up target, and it was retested by the open’s surge.
The open gapped up above yesterday morning’s 2634.50 high and trended straight up to new highs attacking 2640.00. Its reaction down stopped 1-2 ticks short of actually touching 2634.50 before extending even higher to attack 2641.00.
Exceeding the 2636.50 bias-up target at 10:15 renews the bias-up signal. But backing-and-filling is still possible. Maintaining the gap up has formed an anchor that is likely to recover in case of a reaction down. Being bias-up allows room down to the 2630.50 bias-up signal just as noise in the range. And already having extended 4-5 points above the bias-up target does rob a lot of energy.
Currently, another dip is testing 2635.50 as support. Its break would suggest that backing-and-filling is underway. Otherwise, extending higher this morning would require reinforcements, which would make the slope steeper and more aggressive.