S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Late reward.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s opening surge probed the morning’s 2633.50 bias-up target by 3 ticks before the first half-hour had ended. And before the 2628.50 bias-up signal could be triggered. Its reaction down managed to trigger late no-bias, using the grace period to reject bias-up. Triggering no-bias after testing a bias signal puts into play an offsetting test of the opposite bias signal. Which would have been 2617.50, but Wednesday’s low only got to 2620.00. Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.00 prior low was probed only during the cusp between the bias environment and the noon hour, and then during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Both probes failed, but their bounces up to 2626.50 defined the afternoon range’s high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s 2622.00-2626.00 range persisted into Europe’s opens. Bouncing from the range’s lower-end became trending through its upper-end. The trend became more aggressive after testing 2630.00, and almost surged to within 1 tick of yesterday’s 2634.25 high. A 3-point reaction down just touched 2631.00.
If, then…
Thursday is greeted with conflicting influences. Repeatedly absorbing tests of 2623.00 is deserving of a greater reward than just ranging sideways up to 2626.50. And not already exploiting a greater upside reward suggests that “unfinished business below” at 2617.50 is influential. Not fulfilling the attraction below overnight or this morning was likely instead to greet today’s open by gapping up. And the overnight rally suggests the delayed reward to yesterday afternoon’s buyers will come before fulfilling downside attractions. A runaway rally isn’t likely, but some intraday extension will be likely if not quickly rejecting the retest of yesterday’s high.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2631.75 Would be likely to trigger the 2630.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2628.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Thursday steps Thursday morning Market to order it is Thursday November thirty First the last day trading day of the month tomorrow is Friday of course December one first trading day of the new month last month of the year what else do we know about it we know that it’s being greeted optimistically yesterday’s range is the afternoons range that is didn’t exploit that buyers had absorbed the probe under 2623 the probe under Tuesday afternoons last relative low after being probed above Tuesday’s eyes somewhat strength somewhat a bit of strength and otherwise a position of strength that have outlasted the clothes trending down overnight intraday would have likely recovered but not enough to prevent trending down in fact the delay and rewarding buyers for having absorbed that probe under-23 just made made or makes more likely that lower lows will come because they were so influential as to prevent recovering yesterday afternoon currently that’s couple of those there’s still a Tuesday’s oversold are size and its 2609 75 pull back but yesterday also had put in the Play-Off sitting down signal 2617 54th Avenue held test both by not rejecting the bias down until late till invoking the grace period but rejecting it anyway the only way that we are going to avoid testing 1750 ever either overnight or this morning considering yesterday’s inability to Rally from the afternoon or through the afternoon the only way to avoid testing that over night or this morning would have been to Rally overnight opening flat opening within a range today would have had one likely very likely overwhelmingly likely outcome that would have been to extend yesterday morning’s reaction down overnight took care of that first yesterday afternoon’s range persisted into Europe’s opens if not through Europe’s opens already firming party probing a little bit higher and that extending and extending that assist within a tick of yesterday’s high what actually yesterday’s high of 26 3350 that was the morning it was probed by three checks just recently here overnight overwhelmingly overnight to overnight action using overnight but let’s at least because from yesterday morning and then back off 3 or more points that suggests that optimism here but it is restrained and there is still buying pressure available now that comes with live it’s so for instance this morning 2630 50s by accept signalwhich is now beingActon support if that’s not triggered at 10:15 of course then doesn’t matter what kind of pre-open pessimism there might have been the bias up failed the trigger that’s more relevant if at 940-526-3175 which is being tested right now if that is maintaining its recovery if it’s back to being recovered will give the bicep signal 3050 benefit of the doubt that it will be 30 minutes later but right now but we do have in front of us at this time the data available show stopping short of the auvergne of the essays high so we’ll give that some degree of or some benefit of the doubt there was a little deterioration here not really a negative two virgins but it’s worked itself out paid a price for it the question is then if we open up here at 4 or if we open the question is to what degree would be in play remember though there is a Gap Band Outstanding within yesterday’s range it’ll still be attractive gapping up above yesterday’s range would help to Anchor have pull back if we reverse engineer the attraction back down to yesterday and yesterday’s high would be difficult to get back down to your house and lower we can at least suspect that today’s open is less likely to Gap up above so that I’ll be our first test of that template whether it’s in force and that is if the open is gapping within yesterday’s range or above it camping Within but would have less sponsorship and less likelihood of extending of maintaining its extension if there is one we are going to look for silver levels updated on silver silver and gold February but essentially yesterday at 1650 unfinished business was filled of the low a couple months ago lower overnight I’m putting a V bottom to the bottoms when TV bottoms appear they usually appear from a lower level so that right away makes that less likely and if there is a second V bottom attempt it usually fails so not really rushing for to look for a Buy Signal here gold avoided closing under 1250 bases December yesterday although signal overnightagainso I’m asking $4 Cent $24 spread here so I’ve 1270 or 12 8150 whips basis February gold closing Under 12 8150 would confirm momentum as a verse down Long Pond closing 53 would indicate a much bigger Decline and away and not simply a corrective dip all of this probing above 150 for failing to extend was also chipping away at resistant so it at least has the opportunity if it could stretch the rubber band snap back up find buyers at least has the opportunity that on the next approach of 154 resistance is basically gone but it has to hold 153 it has to close back above on 5320 so not exactly being attempted here overnight crude oil which completed a pullback or tested lower prioritize fill the gap down here at about 5680 then to 5675 didn’t trigger it’s by signal yesterday that has extended hire overnight eventually lately every benefit of the doubt for flight for fulfilling a pullback ending a pullback natural gas which really didn’t follow through despite that big 12 3/16 resistance and kind of still testing 316 which is a bicycle if recovered wasn’t very credible because of its still testing if they were going to recover 316 and trigger a Buy Signal really needed to be decisive and not just bouncing off of it at the clothes back within the pattern under the open it’s a little suspicious and even though closing at 12 yesterday would have been need to close until 3:10 today to establish that yesterday’s session not an anomaly but not indicative of or not preventative I should say I’ve actually resolving down to fulfill a retest of 277 6312 rejected and potentially so it’s not a short of breaking through the clothes this gap down testing 310 actually recovers Too Close back above 3/16 keep in mind today is actually closed back about 3:16 today and that’s it we won’t give sellers any credibility won’t be looking for trending back down will look for a bigger up leg underway but the likelihood is reversing back down to 3:10 and at least closing into this area thoroughly testing it caught 8989 20 must hold must hold 8989 to reverse backup to lease retest the high if not actually probit Euro flirting with its 1860 cell signal not rejecting its testLily extending down a little deeperthat sell signal requiring an eventual 3rd lower close which today is working on the pound which went on through all that brexit on-again-off-again noise or confusion fulfilled its 13450 Target very tight pull back limit 134 25 must hold through any clothes it’s not a cell signal otherwise but that is the end of the road if the pull back when I can’t hold otherwise potential to extend the rally and then the Aussie which fighting it for trying to come in for at least fill this week old Gap good luck today
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Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2631.00 | 2630.50 |
| …would target | 2637.00 | 2636.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2622.00 | 2621.50 |
| …would target | 2616.25 | 2615.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s rally didn’t need the endorsement of extending higher ahead of Wednesday’s open, and then surging higher through it. Slowly resuming the rally would have been bullish, too. Any setup would have pointed higher so long as no window was allowed to back-and-fill into negative territory — specifically under Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.00 prior low.
Wednesday’s surge fulfilled upside potential by testing its 2633.50 bias-up target. While that satisfied buying pressure, its sponsorship proved impatient by not at least triggering the 2628.50 bias-up signal. The consequence was to probe under Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.00 prior low.
Backing-and-filling was actually the immediate consequence to rejecting the open’s surge. But probing under 2623.00 didn’t begin until the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. And 2623.00 was recovered as the noon hour began, holding several tests as support through the afternoon. A final attempt during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window failed to maintain its probe under Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.00 prior low.
Absorbing the morning’s drop should have earned its own reward, to recover the morning’s high. Unless Thursday’s open were to gap up, only ranging sideways all Wednesday afternoon suggests that a fresh low is still coming first, e.g. the morning’s 2617.50 outstanding bias objective. Isolating any fresh low to an irrelevant window would end the pullback and allow the rally to resume. Otherwise, a deeper pullback is underway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s probing of the 1.1860 sell signal still wasn’t resolved Wednesday, despite probing a little lower overnight and generally remaining under the signal all day.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Upside momentum had become jeopardized by two consecutive sessions holding the recently filled 1295.50 gap instead of extending through it. Interim weakness was not exploiting its test of support. The consequence was Wednesday’s break lower, to and through the 1285.50 sell signal. A second consecutive lower close Thursday under 1280.50 would confirm a bigger downleg underway.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding last week’s test of the 17.11 buy signal had reacted down to 16.95 support, and then to almost fill an outstanding gap at 16.70 to within 2 cents. Stopping optimistically short of the objective suggested that testing the next lower objective at 16.50 would be done more aggressively. Breaking sharply lower Wednesday morning extended to fresh lows at 16.45.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeated failures to extend intraday bounces had continually held 154-00 as support. Its eventual break could have bottomed at 153-20, but Wednesday opened there and extended down to test 153-00. Back above 153-20 would signal a pullback had ended, and recovering 154-00 and higher would be only a formality. Closing under 153-00 would signal a much deeper downleg underway.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s failure to recover 58.15 compounded with Monday’s similar failure, keeping alive the pullback’s downside potential. Weakness after Tuesday’s API and Wednesday morning’s EIA extended the pullback to test “lower prior highs” and to fill a gap down to 56.75. Closing back above 57.40 would signal the pullback had ended and momentum is reversing up.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Wednesday probed the 3.12-3.16 bounce limit. Closing higher suggests the lows won’t be retested before a more substantial rally develops. Unless confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Thursday, the likelier scenario would reverse down first to retest the lows and an outstanding objective at 2.77.
Mid-day Update… Holding pattern.
Not rallying, but not reversing down.
This morning’s reaction down from testing its 2633.50 bias-up target was probing under yesterday’s 2627.00 highs as the bias environment began. Chipping away at it extended lower to test 2620.00 as the noon hour began. Its reaction held the afternoon’s 2625.50 bias-up signal as resistance.
So, bias-up did not trigger. Neither did no-bias, since the bias signal was still being tested at both 1:20 and 1:30. This is a noN-bias environment. It often behaves like a no-bias, holding the bias signal that didn’t trigger. But that’s not required.
Meanwhile, this morning’s 2617.50 bias-down signal remains in-play. Its attraction could cause another probe under yesterday afternoon’s 2623.00 pullback low. So far, backing-and-filling under 2623.00 has been contained to one instance, leaving the morning’s bias environment and entering the noon hour. Testing 2617.50 would suggest the rally above 2623.00 is done.
Back above 2626.75 would start to signal the backing-and-filling threat under 2623.00 had been absorbed. The minimum reward would be to retest this morning’s high, probably today. The potential reward would be to extend above 2657.00.